WTNT41 KNHC 060831                                              2004219 0831
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2004

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ALEX HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HR...AND IS
NOW CONFINED TO A FEW CLUSTERS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM AFWA SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY EXTRATROPICAL...AND IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE NOW IT SHOULD
BE BY LATER TODAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAPID
FORWARD MOTION.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER
AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THEN MERGING WITH A BAROLCINIC
LOW OR FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 36 HR.  THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/45.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ALEX SHOULD TURN MORE EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT SLOW DOWN BEFORE
MERGER...AND THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 46.5N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  33.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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