WTPZ43 KNHC 121435                                              2004194 1436
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2004

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS
DEVELOPED CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER THIS MORNING
AND THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS OBSCURED BY
THE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER DAY FOUR.  THIS
MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.  THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INTRODUCE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK BY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH EAST
AND WEST OF THIS DEPRESSION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES
CENTIGRADE.  THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS AT 49 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS WHILE
THE GFDL TAKES THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
THE WIND TO PEAK AT 50 KNOTS AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 17.5N 105.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 107.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 109.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 112.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N 114.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N 124.0W    25 KT


$$
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