WTPS31 PGTW 200900 2003354 0926 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- NEAR 11.3S5 133.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 133.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 11.9S1 133.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 12.4S7 132.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 12.7S0 131.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 13.0S4 131.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 133.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC AND ESTIMATED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 05P IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GOULBURN ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND. TC 05P HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SURVIVE OVER LAND AND RETURN OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL WATERS OF THE TIMOR SEA WHERE IT WOULD REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND WBAR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// wxtlist.k: done