WTPA43 PHFO 231430                                              2004236 1431
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON AUG 23 2004
ESTELLE...WITH A MOVEMENT OF 270/9...IS OBVIOUSLY EMBEDDED IN DEEP
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...ESTELLE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST SOUTHWEST COURSE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE SIX
HOUR OLD FORECAST...LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHT BUNCH OF AIDS AND
GLOBAL MODELS...AND CLOSE TO BAMM.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 5000 FT THROUGH ESTELLE THIS
MORNING REPORTED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 35 KNOTS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KT. FLIGHT DATA ALSO GAVE US A
GOOD HANDLE ON CENTER POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HAWAII AND MOVING AWAY TO THE WEST...
ESTELLE SHOULD STAY IN A SHEAR-FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT FOR QUITE SOME
TIME. THE SLOW DECREASE IN FORECAST WIND SPEED TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
THE EXPECTED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER CRAIG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.3N 145.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 147.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.1N 149.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 151.3W    25 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N 153.4W    25 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.6N 157.6W    25 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 15.2N 161.9W    25 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 14.8N 166.2W    25 KT


$$
wxtlist.k: done