WTNT43 KNHC 302010                                              2004243 2011
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF SOME NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTION.  BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ALLOW FOR A 45
KT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
HERMINE MOVES OVER COLD WATER.  BUOY 44004 IS ONLY ABOUT 40 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IF THE BUOY DOES NOT OBSERVE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN HERMINE IS LIKELY
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS
850 MB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 38.4N  71.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 41.0N  70.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 46.0N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     01/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH


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