WTXS32 PGTW 060300                                              2004006 0238
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 21.3S6 113.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 113.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.0S4 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.8S2 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 23.6S1 111.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 113.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052230Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2
AND 070300Z0.//
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