WTPZ41 KNHC 051442                                              2004249 1443
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004

HOWARD HAS BEEN ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 18 HOURS AND
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 1.0 FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB.
THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  DISSIPATION OF
HOWARD'S REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN 48 HOURS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 325/5 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OF THE
REMANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD. FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 25.7N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 26.3N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 26.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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