WTNT44 KNHC 100813                                              2004284 0813
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 49 KNOTS AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 05Z AND 1001 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE.  THE SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS PROBABLY NEAR 40 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME.  MORE RECENTLY...THE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED
AND SO HAS THE CONVECTION OF WHICH THERE IS VERY LITTLE...SO THE
09Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.  WITH 40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LITTLE CHANGE...PERHAPS
WEAKENING...IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/08.  A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN
LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN JUST A FEW
MORE HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0900Z 28.5N  91.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 30.1N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 32.4N  90.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.4N  91.8W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 35.7N  92.7W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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