WTXS31 PGTW 212100 2004081 2015 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- NEAR 14.1S6 121.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 121.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 14.7S2 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 15.2S8 120.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 16.0S7 119.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 16.5S2 119.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 121.2E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR AND GFS ARE LOOKING FOR A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN AND RECURVATURE INTO NORTH WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.// wxtlist.k: done