WTPS31 PGTW 222100 2004082 2116 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 21.6S9 158.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 158.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 22.9S3 159.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 158.5E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A 221530Z3 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED 1 DEGREE NORTH OF RAPIDLY DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH- EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), TCLAPS, AVN, WBAI AND TLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// wxtlist.k: done