WTNT41 KNHC 112020                                              2005162 2021
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ARLENE CROSSED THE COAST JUST
WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AROUND 1900 UTC. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 991 MB...WHICH IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR
STATION AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARLENE HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER. SINCE ARLENE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND FARTHER INLAND AT ABOUT
13 KT...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BEEN MORE
SYMMETRIC TODAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN
FACT...T-NUMBERS TODAY WERE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE
HIGHEST OBSERVED IN ARLENE. THIS COINCIDED WITH A CONTRACTION OF
THE WIND FIELD.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 30.7N  87.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 32.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 36.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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