WTXS31 PGTW 020900 2005002 0752 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.3S8 123.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 123.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 14.8S3 125.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 16.1S8 126.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 124.0E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (RAYMOND) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ORGANIZED AND IMPROVED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BUFFER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOME UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER, ENOUGH POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN SUPPORTING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 18 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 022100Z5.// wxtlist.k: done