WTNT42 KNHC 291500                                              2005241 1500
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005
THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS MAKING ITS SECOND NORTHERN GULF
COAST LANDFALL...NEAR THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER.  WSR-88D
RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS VERY INTENSE AND
DOPPLER VELOCITIES ARE NEAR 120 KT AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 5000 FT
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  THIS...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS
FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 110 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.  HOWEVER KATRINA HAS SUCH A
LARGE AND POWERFUL CIRCULATION THAT IT WILL PROBABLY RETAIN
HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS
WELL INLAND.  THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES IS A
MAJOR CONCERN...AS IS FRESHWATER FLOODING.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
360/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.
KATRINA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND ITS IDENTITY...
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE.
SPECIAL THANKS ARE EXTENDED TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREWS STATIONED AT KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...WHO HAVE BEEN FLYING CONTINUOUS MISSIONS
THROUGH KATRINA EVEN AS THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES ARE BEING
SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 30.2N  89.6W   110 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.3N  89.3W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.4N  88.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 39.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 42.0N  82.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.5N  72.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 51.5N  67.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
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