WTNT45 KNHC 090914                                              2005252 0914
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED.
WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A
LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 33.6N  58.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 34.3N  55.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 35.1N  50.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 36.1N  44.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 37.3N  40.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 45.1N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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