WTNT41 KNHC 090906                                              2005252 0906
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE
02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER
THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z
WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 020/5.  OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST
AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE
BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR
CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE
ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS
MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT
INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER
WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG.  OPHELIA
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW
THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 29.3N  79.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 29.9N  78.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 30.5N  77.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 31.0N  77.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  76.8W    70 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 30.7N  76.8W    75 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 30.5N  77.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  78.5W    75 KT


$$
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