WTNT42 KNHC 230902                                              2005266 0903
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

AFTER COMING OUT OF THE DREADED SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD... NIGHT
TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE PHILIPPE MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES... AND ACCELERATED UP TO 20-22 KT.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE HAS TURNED MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT A SLOWER SPEED...BUT TOWARD BERMUDA.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
25 KT FROM SAB. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 45-KT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW MUCH FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 30-KT
NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT... SO THE
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/16. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF
BERMUDA... AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PHILIPPE COULD GET SHEARED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL LOW... OR REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY AND ESCAPE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE LOW AND SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY AN APPPOACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
THE ONE CHOSEN AND INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED TO THE SOUTH OR
RECURVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST... THE CENTER AND SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY GET UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF
40-60 KT FORECAST EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE WITHIN 36 HOURS... IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE UP TO 58 KT
IN 60 HOURS... IN THE FACE OF 58 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 30.5N  60.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 32.0N  61.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 33.7N  61.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 35.1N  59.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 37.4N  54.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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