WTNT41 KNHC 052048                                              2005278 2048
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THESE
DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT.  THE CREW MADE VISUAL
ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE
COULD BE A SHADE LOW.  SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.
THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.
TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 30.1N  81.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 31.4N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.2N  83.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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