WTPZ44 KNHC 270825                                              2005270 0825
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005

A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT
VECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.
WITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.  NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE
CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPIN DOWN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM
THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS
DISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES
WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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