WTPZ41 KNHC 201447                                              2005293 1448
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
IT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
AND NO DOMINANT CENTER.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA
OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED
SOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST.  THE
TROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD.  IF SIXTEEN-E WERE
A DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY
WEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
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