WXTLIST WMO=AXNT20
AXNT20 KNHC 211803                                              2026021 1803
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure at the
central Atlantic and a 1009 mb Colombian low is supporting fresh
to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Drainage flow this
evening will enhance these winds further and reach strong-gale to
gale-force. They should subside below gale-force Thu morning but
will remain at fresh to strong with locally near-gale through
Thursday night. Rough seas are forecast until late Friday morning.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Heavy Rainfall in areas surrounding the Gulf of Honduras:
Across the Gulf of Honduras, the shearline is weakening and
tropical moisture is decreasing. Periodic heavy showers and
thunderstorms are still expected today but the potential for
significant rainfall will steadily decrease starting this
afternoon. Some local flooding is still possible today as the
soil remain saturated. Continue to consult products from your
local meteorological services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
just north of Conakry, then curves southwestward to 06N16W. An
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N16W across 02N30W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
near the ITCZ but south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 03N
between 10W and 23W. Scattered showers are seen along and up to
160 nm north of rest of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Strong upper-level southwesterly winds are streaming thick cirrus
across the western and northeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a strong
surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1032 mb high over
the Florida-Georgia border across the Florida Big Bend area to
near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft are present at the southeastern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted for the north-central, northwestern and the rest
of the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at
2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to
rough seas at the eastern Gulf will persist through this
afternoon. The next cold front is slated to enter the northwestern
Gulf Fri night into Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of
the front, may bring gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night,
then near Veracruz on Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall and a Gale Warning.
A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the western Gulf of Honduras. The southeastern
end of a stationary front is generating patchy showers over
central Cuba. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh
with locally strong ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas is seen at
the north-central basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the
southwestern basin west of 80W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the southeastern
United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate to rough seas across the northwestern Caribbean
through this afternoon. These winds are still transporting
enough tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting
periods of locally heavy showers today. A surface trough, and
associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands
late today, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching
Hispaniola on Fri. This will increase the likelihood of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and
surrounding waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N61W to over central Cuba. Scattered showers are found
near and up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. An elongated
upper-level low near 19N49W is producing scattered moderate
convection east of the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 20N between 49W
and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen near and
up to 180 nm northwest of the stationary front, including the
central and northwest Bahamas. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate easterly swell exist off
northeastern Florida. To the east, Gentle E to SE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are present north of 28N between 35W and the
stationary front. To the south from 24N to 28N between 35W and the
stationary front, moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft
seas dominate. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 24N between
35W and southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are noted. For the rest of the
Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at
6 to 9 ft in mixed large swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
east of 65W through Thu. The aforementioned stationary front will
lift north and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure
gradient over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits
of Florida through this evening.
$$
Chan
WXTLIST: done