WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10
ABPW10 PGTW 180030                                              2020049 0022
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180030Z-180600ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 177.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 176.5W, APPROXIMATELY
382 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170946Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE, ELONGATED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED, WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. INVEST 96P IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SEVERAL OF THOSE
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS
THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A LIKELY REGION
FOR ONE OF THOSE CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 167.1W, APPROXIMATELY
352 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CIRCULATION
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A 171739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED,
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172053Z ASCAT-B SHOWS
STRONG (45-50 KT) ASYMMETRIC WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL, IN-PHASE, WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.(C).1 TO
MEDIUM.//
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