WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10
ABPW10 PGTW 170600                                              2019260 0717
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP19 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (PEIPAH) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF IWO TO, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 161500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 132.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY
376 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS VERY COMPLEX AND ATYPICAL WITH A GYRE-SIZE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SITUATED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF JAPAN, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING WITH, AND DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN A 170446Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEFINED, SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 170019Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS, PERSISTENT MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, AND WEAK
DEVELOPMENT. IN SUMMARY, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM, WHICH HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE AS A WARM-CORE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AND STRONG WESTERLIES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 170132Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10-15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LUZON WITH
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. THE
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO INVEST 95W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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