Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
Microwave Rapid Intensification Index

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Harvey at 08/24/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 161 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 31.7% 45.8% 44.8% 31.7% 25.1% 35.5% 25.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 55.0% 63.6% 63.5% 51.4% 45.4% 37.8% 36.1% 34.1%
Logistic 45.9% 52.7% 39.8% 25.9% 16.8% 30.1% 17.4% 3.3% Logistic 66.3% 80.5% 75.2% 64.1% 41.9% 49.0% 32.0% 12.5%
Bayesian 50.0% 69.8% 49.9% 48.9% 20.8% 22.2% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian 23.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus 42.5% 56.1% 44.8% 35.5% 20.9% 29.3% 14.9% 1.3% Consensus 48.4% 48.6% 46.5% 38.5% 29.1% 29.0% 22.7% 15.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/31/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.8% 7.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/30/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.5% 11.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 4.4% 3.1% 0.1% N/A 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/30/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMIF15 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.5% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 12.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.3% N/A 0.0% Logistic N/A 3.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.5% 3.8% 0.4% N/A 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/30/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 174 kts Hi MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC centerHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.5% 13.5% 10.0% 6.4% 5.1% 10.4% 8.1% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.4% 3.8% 2.3% N/A 3.6% 2.8% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/30/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 173 kts Hi MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC centerHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.0% 17.1% 12.7% 8.3% 6.6% 12.5% 12.1% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.1% 7.2% 5.0% 3.0% N/A 4.4% 4.1% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/29/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 173 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.7% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 14.1% 10.1% 6.4% 0.0% 11.0% 12.2% 9.2%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% Logistic 3.0% 7.3% 4.5% 2.4% 1.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.4% Consensus 2.7% 7.1% 4.9% 3.0% N/A 4.3% 4.2% 3.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/29/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMIF15 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.4% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 16.3% 11.8% 7.2% 0.0% 12.7% 14.7% 12.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3% Logistic 1.7% 4.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.7% 2.3% Consensus 2.4% 7.1% 4.9% 2.7% 0.1% 4.5% 5.1% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/29/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 166 kts Hi MW imagery available, but does not fully cover the TC centerHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.6% 15.6% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 12.5% 13.7% 11.2%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.6% 0.1% 4.4% 4.9% 3.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/28/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 9.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 10.2%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.3% N/A 0.3% Logistic 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.8% Consensus 1.3% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 3.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/28/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.6% 13.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 9.8%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.4% 5.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 3.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/28/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.7% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.3% 4.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/28/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- GMI ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.1% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 2.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.1% 3.8% 0.1% N/A 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/27/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.2% 14.5% 11.2% 7.2% 6.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.8% 4.3% 2.5% N/A 3.6% 0.3% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/27/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- GMI ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.9% 13.9% 10.7% 6.8% 6.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.3% 3.9% 2.3% N/A 3.5% 0.2% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/27/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.6% 13.2% 10.2% 6.9% 6.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 4.8% 3.6% 2.3% N/A 3.8% 0.1% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/27/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.2% 13.3% 10.4% 7.5% 7.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 5.2% 4.0% 2.6% N/A 4.1% 0.2% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/26/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.1% 6.6% 5.7% 5.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 33.0% 10.4% 3.1% 1.0% N/A 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 6.6% 3.5% 2.3% N/A 3.4% 0.1% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/26/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 154 kts Hi TC center is over landHi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF16 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.9% 6.2% 5.2% 4.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% N/A 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/26/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 145 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.2% N/A 0.0% Logistic N/A 3.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% Consensus N/A 5.2% 0.9% 0.3% N/A 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Harvey at 08/26/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 136 kts Hi

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Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF16 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.3% N/A 0.0% Logistic N/A 6.4% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 5.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% Consensus N/A 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% N/A 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/25/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 143 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 17.9% 32.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic 18.9% 10.2% 6.2% 2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% Logistic 16.1% 20.5% 16.9% 8.7% 2.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 20.8% 3.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian 7.7% 5.2% 2.7% 0.2% N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus 19.2% 15.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus 14.1% 14.7% 6.5% 3.0% N/A 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/25/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 156 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 11.1% 37.7% 30.1% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 28.0% 34.6% 28.2% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic 22.8% 23.7% 12.6% 8.5% 5.7% 4.4% 2.9% 0.1% Logistic 23.6% 35.8% 29.0% 15.1% 4.5% 11.4% 3.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 21.8% 13.8% 7.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian 29.2% 11.9% 11.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus 18.6% 25.1% 16.7% 9.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus 26.9% 27.5% 22.8% 11.9% 1.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/25/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 154 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 31.1% 43.8% 32.3% N/A 17.3% 22.1% N/A 0.0% SHIPS-RII 29.9% 36.7% 28.5% 22.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic 18.4% 26.6% 16.6% N/A N/A 6.2% N/A 0.3% Logistic 18.3% 32.0% 24.7% 12.5% 3.5% 10.2% 3.7% 0.4%
Bayesian 46.2% N/A N/A 34.3% N/A 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 19.5% 22.1% 17.7% 7.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus 31.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.2% N/A 0.1% Consensus 22.6% 30.2% 23.7% 14.2% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/25/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 154 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF16 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 3.3% 41.5% 30.0% 8.2% 3.1% 24.9% 23.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 29.1% 44.2% 33.5% 27.6% 21.4% 21.9% 19.7% 0.0%
Logistic 19.3% 35.1% 17.8% 9.5% 8.2% 9.6% 8.2% 0.9% Logistic 23.0% 44.4% 34.8% 19.6% 7.1% 15.5% 12.6% 3.4%
Bayesian 3.6% 28.8% 6.9% 2.6% 2.6% 5.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian 14.2% 28.0% 17.9% 10.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Consensus 8.7% 35.1% 18.2% 6.8% 4.6% 13.2% 10.5% 0.4% Consensus 22.1% 38.9% 28.7% 19.3% 11.0% 13.0% 11.0% 1.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/24/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 167 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMIF15 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A 50.6% 50.6% N/A 25.8% 40.9% 31.5% 37.0% SHIPS-RII 46.3% 75.2% 67.8% 64.0% 53.4% 68.9% 45.0% 59.3%
Logistic 61.4% N/A N/A N/A 22.2% 60.3% 39.6% 21.4% Logistic 72.5% 87.2% 83.9% 78.7% 53.4% 64.0% 41.4% 20.5%
Bayesian 58.3% 62.4% 32.0% 27.6% 2.4% N/A 2.4% 0.2% Bayesian 56.4% 64.2% 56.6% 23.4% 22.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A 16.8% N/A 24.5% 19.5% Consensus 58.4% 75.5% 69.4% 55.4% 43.1% 45.2% 28.9% 26.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/24/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 19.7% 54.3% 45.2% 30.0% 17.0% 42.5% 42.9% 65.7%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 33.1% 71.5% 61.5% 39.1% 12.8% 63.4% 56.0% 49.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 8.5% 46.1% 30.0% 10.6% 4.3% 12.2% 8.0% 5.4%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 20.4% 57.3% 45.6% 26.6% 11.4% 39.4% 35.7% 40.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/24/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A 6.7% 4.6% N/A 1.4% 6.3% 24.1% 33.7% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 28.9% 17.3% 9.7% 8.4% 15.3% 29.7% 52.3%
Logistic 2.8% N/A N/A N/A 2.4% 20.2% 41.3% 47.9% Logistic 9.1% 44.7% 32.8% 16.8% 6.7% 41.4% 49.6% 50.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% N/A 0.0% 0.0% N/A 2.7% 5.1% Bayesian 0.5% 5.7% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 4.8%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.3% N/A 22.7% 28.9% Consensus 5.6% 26.4% 18.1% 9.1% 5.1% 19.1% 27.4% 35.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/23/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 2.2% 36.3% 23.2% 2.2% 1.6% 9.7% 25.2% 44.5% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 34.2% 20.8% 10.1% 8.7% 16.0% 32.0% 61.8%
Logistic 3.6% 38.2% 22.5% 10.3% 3.7% 34.0% 52.1% 66.2% Logistic 12.3% 54.0% 41.4% 24.8% 11.0% 51.5% 56.2% 61.6%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 15.1% 10.6% Bayesian 1.2% 10.4% 4.7% 0.8% 0.4% 2.5% 8.5% 12.2%
Consensus 2.1% 25.0% 15.4% 4.2% 1.8% 15.5% 30.8% 40.4% Consensus 7.1% 32.9% 22.3% 11.9% 6.7% 23.3% 32.2% 45.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/23/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.6% 32.3% 18.9% 9.7% 8.3% 15.4% 34.7% 62.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 6.2% 26.5% 15.9% 3.4% 0.8% 22.4% 45.1% 53.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 1.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 4.7% 2.2%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 4.9% 20.5% 12.0% 4.4% 3.1% 12.8% 28.2% 39.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/23/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 139 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.4% 17.4% 13.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 3.7% 16.8% 9.1% 1.8% 0.5% 16.1% 39.9% 55.1%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 3.5%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.3% 12.1% 7.7% 3.3% 0.2% 5.4% 20.1% 19.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/23/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 131 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.3% 17.3% 13.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 6.2% 26.6% 16.1% 5.2% 2.5% 30.8% 49.7% 70.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 1.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 4.1% 6.2%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 4.2% 15.5% 10.1% 4.4% 0.9% 10.4% 24.2% 25.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/22/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.1% 18.6% 14.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 4.7% 28.7% 18.3% 5.5% 1.7% 12.2% 28.2% 69.6%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.6%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.7% 15.9% 10.9% 4.6% 0.6% 4.1% 15.9% 23.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/22/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 147 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.4% 23.2% 15.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 21.9% 12.5% 2.7% 0.8% 5.3% 18.7% 55.3%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.4%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 15.3% 9.4% 4.0% 0.3% 1.8% 13.0% 18.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/22/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 146 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.4% 18.4% 14.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 30.3% 16.7% 4.3% 1.3% 12.6% 24.9% 65.9%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% N/A 0.7% 3.8% 22.1%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 16.7% 10.4% 4.2% N/A 4.4% 15.7% 29.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/22/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 141 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.9% 32.5% 19.4% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic N/A 37.0% 22.8% 8.6% 4.0% 23.8% 33.0% 61.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.4% 4.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 16.9%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus N/A 24.6% 15.0% 6.2% 1.4% 8.2% 18.1% 26.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/21/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.5% 31.9% 18.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 12.7% 45.3% 29.2% 14.3% 9.7% 41.1% 41.7% 68.4%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.8% 8.3% 6.5% 1.4% 0.1% 4.5% 4.7% 24.2%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 7.0% 28.5% 18.0% 8.4% 3.3% 15.2% 21.7% 30.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/21/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.5% 19.3% 14.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 6.8% 40.2% 23.2% 11.3% 10.7% 24.5% 31.8% 74.5%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.2% 34.4%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 4.2% 20.7% 12.7% 6.6% 3.6% 8.4% 18.1% 36.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/21/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 132 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 5.5% 22.3% 14.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 3.3% 24.7% 12.5% 5.4% 5.3% 10.7% 30.3% 71.4%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.2%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.0% 15.7% 9.1% 4.7% 1.8% 3.6% 16.0% 24.9%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/21/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.8% 32.8% 17.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 5.0% 37.6% 22.3% 10.5% 6.4% 27.0% 53.1% 76.2%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 21.9%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 4.0% 23.7% 13.3% 6.6% 2.1% 9.0% 24.4% 32.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/20/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 7.0% 27.1% 15.3% 9.2% 7.9% 14.8% 20.7% 54.9%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 10.2% 32.1% 18.0% 9.0% 8.0% 28.6% 46.2% 71.2%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 2.7% 15.7% 6.0% 1.9% 0.3% 1.4% 3.9% 16.1%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 6.6% 25.0% 13.1% 6.7% 5.4% 14.9% 23.6% 47.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/20/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 8.7% 41.4% 23.6% 10.0% 8.8% 16.7% 24.8% 42.5%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 27.9% 52.4% 36.4% 30.8% 28.0% 40.9% 37.0% 60.2%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 3.8% 11.5% 10.4% 3.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 3.1%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 13.5% 35.1% 23.5% 14.9% 12.7% 19.6% 20.7% 35.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/20/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 131 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.0% 19.2% 14.1% 8.3% 6.9% 13.7% 19.1% 43.4%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 5.7% 20.6% 10.0% 3.7% 2.4% 11.6% 18.2% 51.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 4.2% 13.4% 8.2% 4.0% 3.1% 8.5% 12.5% 36.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/20/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 126 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 1.7% 4.2% 3.8% 1.5% 1.4% 5.4% 3.9% 34.2% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 16.3% 12.2% 7.7% 6.5% 12.6% 16.3% 34.4%
Logistic 0.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4.7% 5.2% 30.4% Logistic 1.9% 8.9% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% 4.1% 9.2% 34.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4%
Consensus 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 3.4% 3.3% 21.9% Consensus 2.1% 8.6% 5.4% 3.0% 2.5% 5.6% 8.5% 23.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/19/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.9% 15.4% 11.5% 7.3% 6.0% 12.2% 15.8% 27.3%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 4.4% 12.8% 6.3% 3.1% 2.1% 9.9% 16.0% 45.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.9% 9.8% 6.2% 3.5% 2.7% 7.4% 10.6% 24.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/19/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF16 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 1.9% 4.3% 4.0% 1.7% 1.2% 4.7% 3.5% 28.4% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 15.5% 11.6% 7.9% 0.0% 12.6% 15.6% 20.6%
Logistic 1.7% 6.7% 2.4% 3.2% 0.9% 6.5% 6.1% 62.3% Logistic 4.0% 10.4% 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 8.4% 17.4% 51.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 21.4% Bayesian 0.2% 3.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% 3.2% 13.4%
Consensus 1.2% 3.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 3.9% 3.7% 37.4% Consensus 3.1% 9.7% 6.3% 4.0% 0.6% 7.2% 12.1% 28.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/19/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.1% 10.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 12.6% 20.6%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% 2.9% 6.3% 38.8%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 16.1%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 1.2% 5.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 4.2% 7.1% 25.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/19/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF17 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.8% 3.4% 1.5% 1.3% 4.2% 3.1% 14.3% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 10.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0%
Logistic 1.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 4.8% 3.5% 36.8% Logistic 1.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 2.4% 4.8% 30.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 9.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1%
Consensus 0.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 3.0% 2.6% 20.0% Consensus 1.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 17.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/18/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- AMSR2 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 25.5% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 15.5% 11.7% 8.0% 0.0% 11.8% 13.6% 18.5%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.7% N/A 48.4% Logistic 6.1% 11.8% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% 12.3% 15.0% 39.7%
Bayesian 1.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.2% 12.4% Bayesian 0.4% 8.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 2.4%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.8% Consensus 4.0% 11.8% 7.1% 5.2% 1.6% 8.5% 9.9% 20.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/18/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 13.7% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 15.2% 11.3% 7.5% 5.9% 11.1% 11.9% 17.5%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.6% N/A 20.2% Logistic 3.3% 9.1% 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% 6.8% 7.5% 22.9%
Bayesian 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.7% 1.3% Bayesian 0.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.7% Consensus 2.9% 9.4% 5.9% 3.6% 2.6% 6.0% 6.5% 13.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/18/17 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.8% 13.4% 9.7% 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% 11.3% 17.7%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 1.9% 5.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 3.8% 8.1% 33.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.6%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.0% 6.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 6.7% 17.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Harvey at 08/18/17 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts Hi

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE -- SSMISF18 ) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII 1.9% 4.3% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% 4.0% 3.2% 21.7% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 16.2% 12.0% 8.0% 6.2% 11.6% 13.3% 19.8%
Logistic 0.9% 4.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.3% 4.6% 5.3% 45.6% Logistic 3.3% 8.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8% 5.2% 11.9% 41.9%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 4.9% Bayesian 0.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 2.5%
Consensus 1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 2.9% 3.1% 24.1% Consensus 3.1% 9.4% 5.6% 3.3% 2.4% 5.7% 8.8% 21.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Nine at 08/17/17 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.7% 17.3% 12.9% 8.4% 6.6% 12.4% 15.0% 20.7%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 4.0% 10.9% 5.1% 2.2% 1.2% 7.0% 16.3% 47.0%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 3.8% 9.9% 6.1% 3.6% 2.6% 6.5% 10.7% 22.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Blah


Nine at 08/17/17 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts Hi No Microwave Imagery Available

Blah


Experimental Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
(WITH MICROWAVE) (NO MICROWAVE)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.8% 14.9% 11.2% 7.4% 5.8% 11.3% 13.3% 19.2%
Logistic N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic 2.1% 7.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 3.7% 14.1% 50.9%
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4%
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consensus 2.4% 7.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.0% 5.0% 9.4% 23.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------