Tropical Depression 04L
ARCHER-V2 Auto-positioning Information Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 9.0 |
-------FORECAST----- ----ARCHER---- 50% cert 95% cert Eyewall Conf Alpha Eye Date/Time(UTC) Source Sensor Lat Lon Vmax Lat Lon radius radius radius Score Score Prob . 20190821 03:50:20 GOES16 IR 40.22 55.86 35.0 39.94 55.76 1.27 3.59 0.50 0.34 1.32 61.4 GIF 20190821 04:20:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.23 55.66 35.0 40.15 55.59 0.46 1.31 0.35 0.46 3.63 72.7 GIF 20190821 04:50:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.24 55.45 35.0 40.34 55.35 0.41 1.17 0.05 0.51 4.05 76.8 GIF 20190821 05:20:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.25 55.25 35.0 39.97 54.92 0.87 2.45 0.35 0.27 1.93 53.5 GIF 20190821 05:50:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.25 55.04 35.0 40.28 55.01 0.37 1.06 0.05 0.56 4.49 79.8 GIF 20190821 06:20:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.26 54.84 35.0 40.16 54.71 0.59 1.66 0.10 0.37 2.86 67.4 GIF 20190821 06:50:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.27 54.64 35.0 40.17 54.34 0.99 2.79 0.05 0.24 1.70 49.4 GIF 20190821 07:10:20 GOES16 NearIR 40.27 54.50 35.0 40.54 54.54 0.55 1.54 0.05 0.40 3.07 65.4 GIF 20190821 07:40:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.28 54.30 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 5.65 0.0 GIF 20190821 08:20:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.29 54.04 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 5.41 0.0 GIF 20190821 08:50:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.31 53.76 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 5.22 0.0 GIF 20190821 09:20:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.31 53.58 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 5.03 0.0 GIF 20190821 09:40:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.31 53.45 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 4.91 0.0 GIF 20190821 10:10:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.32 53.27 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 4.72 0.0 GIF 20190821 10:40:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.32 53.09 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 4.54 0.0 GIF 20190821 11:10:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.31 52.90 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 4.37 0.0 GIF 20190821 11:40:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.25 55.13 35.0 40.30 52.72 0.27 0.77 N/A 1.08 4.20 0.0 GIF 20190821 12:10:20 SSMI17 85-92GHz 40.29 52.72 35.0 40.29 52.53 0.39 1.11 N/A 0.50 4.24 0.0 GIF 20190821 12:40:20 GOES16 Vis 40.28 52.35 35.0 40.31 52.45 0.36 1.00 0.40 0.38 4.72 66.7 GIF 20190821 13:10:20 SSMI17 85-92GHz 40.29 52.72 35.0 40.29 52.16 0.39 1.11 N/A 0.50 4.10 0.0 GIF 20190821 13:40:20 GOES16 Vis 40.28 51.98 35.0 40.25 51.88 0.32 0.90 0.20 0.42 5.25 73.5 GIF 20190821 14:10:20 GOES16 Vis 40.27 51.80 35.0 40.22 51.73 0.34 0.95 0.15 0.40 5.00 72.0 GIF 20190821 14:40:20 GOES16 Vis 40.21 51.71 35.0 40.21 51.62 0.33 0.93 0.25 0.41 5.08 73.2 GIF 20190821 15:10:20 GOES16 Vis 40.20 51.54 35.0 40.25 51.41 0.29 0.81 0.25 0.46 5.83 84.2 GIF 20190821 15:40:20 GOES16 Vis 40.18 51.36 35.0 40.13 51.26 0.46 1.31 0.05 0.31 3.63 73.3 GIF 20190821 16:10:20 GOES16 Vis 40.17 51.18 35.0 40.02 50.99 0.29 0.83 0.15 0.46 5.74 83.3 GIF 20190821 16:40:21 GOES16 Vis 40.16 51.00 35.0 39.96 50.93 0.25 0.70 0.20 0.52 6.73 97.1 GIF 20190821 17:10:20 SSMI17 85-92GHz 40.29 52.72 35.0 40.16 50.81 0.39 1.11 N/A 0.50 3.33 0.0 GIF 20190821 17:40:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 40.15 50.64 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 5.25 0.0 GIF 20190821 18:10:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 40.14 50.45 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 5.14 0.0 GIF 20190821 18:50:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 40.13 50.20 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.96 0.0 GIF 20190821 19:20:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 40.12 50.01 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.82 0.0 GIF 20190821 19:50:20 GOES16 IR 40.11 49.83 35.0 40.06 49.57 0.31 0.87 0.05 0.76 5.45 100.0 GIF 20190821 20:20:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 40.10 49.64 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.52 0.0 GIF 20190821 20:50:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.80 49.16 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.37 0.0 GIF 20190821 21:20:20 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.80 48.98 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.22 0.0 GIF 20190821 21:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.80 48.80 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 4.08 0.0 GIF 20190821 22:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.77 48.64 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 3.93 0.0 GIF 20190821 22:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.76 48.47 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 3.80 0.0 GIF 20190821 23:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 40.16 50.98 35.0 39.72 48.32 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.84 3.66 0.0 GIF 20190821 23:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.70 48.17 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 5.03 0.0 GIF 20190822 00:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.68 48.02 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.95 0.0 GIF 20190822 00:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.66 47.87 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.84 0.0 GIF 20190822 01:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.64 47.73 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.72 0.0 GIF 20190822 01:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.61 47.59 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.60 0.0 GIF 20190822 02:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.59 47.45 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.46 0.0 GIF 20190822 02:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.42 47.45 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.33 0.0 GIF 20190822 03:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.39 47.30 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.19 0.0 GIF 20190822 03:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.35 47.15 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 4.06 0.0 GIF 20190822 04:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.31 47.00 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 3.92 0.0 GIF 20190822 04:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.30 46.85 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 3.79 0.0 GIF 20190822 05:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.27 46.71 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 3.66 0.0 GIF 20190822 05:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.24 46.56 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 3.54 0.0 GIF 20190822 06:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 39.72 48.34 35.0 39.20 46.42 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.75 3.41 0.0 GIF 20190822 06:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.15 46.28 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 5.76 0.0 GIF 20190822 07:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.12 46.14 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 5.57 0.0 GIF 20190822 07:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.09 45.99 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 5.37 0.0 GIF 20190822 08:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.05 45.86 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 5.18 0.0 GIF 20190822 08:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.11 45.74 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.98 0.0 GIF 20190822 09:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.08 45.61 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.79 0.0 GIF 20190822 09:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.04 45.49 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.60 0.0 GIF 20190822 10:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 39.01 45.36 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.42 0.0 GIF 20190822 10:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 38.98 45.23 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.25 0.0 GIF 20190822 11:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 38.94 45.11 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 4.08 0.0 GIF 20190822 11:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 39.29 46.89 30.0 38.90 44.98 0.26 0.75 N/A 1.13 3.92 0.0 GIF 20190822 12:20:21 GOES16 Vis 38.86 44.86 30.0 38.88 44.57 0.29 0.82 0.15 0.46 5.82 69.8 GIF 20190822 12:50:21 GOES16 Vis 38.82 44.73 30.0 38.84 44.44 0.21 0.60 0.20 0.61 7.94 78.7 GIF 20190822 13:20:21 GOES16 Vis 38.78 44.60 30.0 38.81 44.25 0.20 0.56 0.10 0.65 8.49 81.7 GIF 20190822 13:50:21 GOES16 Vis 38.74 44.48 30.0 38.84 44.22 0.24 0.69 0.20 0.53 6.85 75.1 GIF 20190822 14:20:21 GOES16 Vis 38.70 44.35 30.0 38.80 44.13 0.22 0.61 0.15 0.59 7.72 82.0 GIF 20190822 14:50:21 GOES16 Vis 38.81 43.83 30.0 38.84 43.80 0.36 1.02 0.40 0.38 4.65 67.9 GIF 20190822 15:20:21 SSMI18 85-92GHz 38.92 45.06 30.0 38.79 43.72 0.33 0.93 N/A 0.76 4.29 0.0 GIF 20190822 15:50:21 GOES16 Vis 38.74 43.62 30.0 38.84 43.40 0.19 0.54 0.10 0.66 8.76 96.1 GIF 20190822 16:20:21 GOES16 Vis 38.70 43.51 30.0 38.80 43.32 0.17 0.48 0.15 0.74 9.80 98.4 GIF 20190822 16:50:21 GOES16 Vis 38.66 43.40 30.0 38.71 43.24 0.19 0.55 0.25 0.66 8.68 95.9 GIF 20190822 17:20:21 GOES16 Vis 38.61 43.30 30.0 38.74 43.17 0.18 0.51 0.35 0.71 9.36 98.3 GIF 20190822 17:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.57 43.19 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.95 0.0 GIF 20190822 18:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.53 43.08 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.81 0.0 GIF 20190822 18:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.48 42.98 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.67 0.0 GIF 20190822 19:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.44 42.87 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.52 0.0 GIF 20190822 19:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.40 42.77 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.37 0.0 GIF 20190822 20:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.35 42.66 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.22 0.0 GIF 20190822 20:50:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.12 42.42 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 4.08 0.0 GIF 20190822 21:20:21 AMSR2 85-92GHz 38.74 43.63 30.0 38.07 42.34 0.31 0.88 N/A 0.83 3.94 0.0 GIF 20190822 21:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 38.02 42.27 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 5.46 0.0 GIF 20190822 22:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.97 42.19 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 5.38 0.0 GIF 20190822 22:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.93 42.11 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 5.26 0.0 GIF 20190822 23:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.88 42.03 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 5.13 0.0 GIF 20190822 23:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.84 41.95 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.99 0.0 GIF 20190823 00:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.79 41.88 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.84 0.0 GIF 20190823 00:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.75 41.81 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.69 0.0 GIF 20190823 01:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.71 41.74 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.54 0.0 GIF 20190823 01:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.67 41.67 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.38 0.0 GIF 20190823 02:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.62 41.60 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.23 0.0 GIF 20190823 02:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.82 41.91 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 4.08 0.0 GIF 20190823 03:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.78 41.87 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.93 0.0 GIF 20190823 03:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.75 41.83 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.79 0.0 GIF 20190823 04:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.71 41.79 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.66 0.0 GIF 20190823 04:50:23 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.67 41.75 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.52 0.0 GIF 20190823 05:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.64 41.70 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.40 0.0 GIF 20190823 05:50:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.60 41.66 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.28 0.0 GIF 20190823 06:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.56 41.61 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.16 0.0 GIF 20190823 06:50:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.52 41.57 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 3.05 0.0 GIF 20190823 07:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.48 41.53 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.94 0.0 GIF 20190823 07:50:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.45 41.48 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.84 0.0 GIF 20190823 08:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.41 41.44 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.74 0.0 GIF 20190823 08:50:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.12 40.90 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.65 0.0 GIF 20190823 09:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.08 40.87 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.56 0.0 GIF 20190823 09:50:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 38.05 42.31 30.0 37.03 40.85 0.31 0.86 N/A 0.87 2.48 0.0 GIF 20190823 10:20:22 SSMI18 85-92GHz 36.99 40.84 25.0 36.97 40.83 0.41 1.17 N/A 0.44 4.07 0.0 GIF 20190823 10:50:22 SSMI18 85-92GHz 36.99 40.84 25.0 36.93 40.81 0.41 1.17 N/A 0.44 4.03 0.0 GIF 20190823 11:20:22 SSMI17 85-92GHz 36.89 40.79 25.0 36.88 40.79 0.34 0.97 N/A 0.68 4.86 0.0 GIF 20190823 11:50:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.84 40.77 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 5.14 0.0 GIF 20190823 12:20:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.79 40.75 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 5.08 0.0 GIF 20190823 12:50:22 GOES16 Vis 36.75 40.74 25.0 36.62 40.55 0.31 0.88 0.15 0.43 5.38 77.6 GIF 20190823 13:20:22 GOES16 Vis 36.70 40.72 25.0 36.75 40.63 0.24 0.68 0.05 0.54 7.02 91.8 GIF 20190823 13:50:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.66 40.71 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 4.74 0.0 GIF 20190823 14:20:22 GOES16 Vis 36.61 40.70 25.0 36.59 40.49 0.33 0.92 0.05 0.41 5.13 72.4 GIF 20190823 14:50:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.62 40.80 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 4.47 0.0 GIF 20190823 15:20:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.57 40.79 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 4.34 0.0 GIF 20190823 15:50:22 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.52 40.79 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 4.20 0.0 GIF 20190823 16:20:22 GOES16 Vis 36.47 40.78 25.0 36.54 40.50 0.29 0.83 0.10 0.45 5.73 73.5 GIF 20190823 16:50:22 GOES16 Vis 36.42 40.78 25.0 36.27 40.66 0.41 1.16 0.05 0.34 4.08 66.0 GIF 20190823 17:20:21 GOES16 Vis 36.37 40.78 25.0 36.27 40.69 0.25 0.72 0.05 0.52 6.61 80.7 GIF 20190823 17:50:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.32 40.78 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.66 0.0 GIF 20190823 18:20:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.28 40.79 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.53 0.0 GIF 20190823 18:50:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.23 40.79 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.41 0.0 GIF 20190823 19:20:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.18 40.81 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.29 0.0 GIF 20190823 19:50:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.14 40.81 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.18 0.0 GIF 20190823 20:20:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.09 40.82 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 3.07 0.0 GIF 20190823 20:50:21 GMI 85-92GHz 36.85 40.78 25.0 36.02 40.78 0.33 0.92 N/A 0.77 2.96 0.0 GIF 20190823 21:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.98 40.81 25.0 35.96 40.81 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.69 0.0 GIF 20190823 21:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.98 40.81 25.0 35.91 40.83 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.64 0.0 GIF 20190823 22:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.98 40.81 25.0 35.87 40.85 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.56 0.0 GIF 20190823 22:50:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.83 40.88 25.0 35.83 40.88 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.70 0.0 GIF 20190823 23:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.83 40.88 25.0 35.79 40.91 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.66 0.0 GIF 20190823 23:50:21 GOES16 NearIR 35.76 40.94 25.0 35.58 40.79 0.36 1.01 0.05 0.58 4.67 51.4 GIF 20190824 00:20:21 SSMI17 85-92GHz 35.83 40.88 25.0 35.72 40.98 0.36 1.01 N/A 0.63 4.49 0.0 GIF |
Key: - Date/Time: UTC time. If this observation is used in the track it is marked with a "*". If it is used for its own 30-minute window, it is put in bold. - Source/sensor: Satellite source of the analyzed image. - Vmax: Maximum winds listed in the forecast center analysis/forecast, *not* ARCHER. - ARCHER lat/lon: Coordinates of the ARCHER algorithm, valid at the time of the observation. If no center fix could be found, then it is "***". - Geo ref lat/lon: Coordinates of the ARCHER algorithm, valid at the time of the *nearest geo image*. - 50% cert. rad.: Radius of the circle (in degrees) that defines the area in which the ARCHER center of rotation is 50% certain. The lower the number, the more certain the position. - 95% cert. rad.: Radius of the circle (in degrees) that defines the area in which the ARCHER center of rotation is 95% certain. - Eye diam (deg): ARCHER-resolved eye diameter (in degrees). Green: robust, yellow: less certain, red: not robust. - % cert. of eye: Percent certainty that an eye exists in this image, determined by ARCHER. Currently only available for IR and 85-92 GHz imagery.
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Links to related versions: - Track Plot - Summary table - Intensity Estimation |