Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Bret at 06/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.2% 6.4% 3.8% 2.6% 2.6% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.2% 3.0% 2.8% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 2.2% 2.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.8% 6.3% 5.9% 3.2% 7.0% 6.4% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 1.9% N/A Bayesian 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 1.6% 1.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.8% 5.5% 5.3% 2.4% 6.4% 5.8% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% N/A Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 10.2% 6.5% 6.2% 3.5% 7.8% 7.3% 8.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 11.5% 7.4% 6.8% 4.1% 8.3% 7.3% 8.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.3% 5.0% 4.0% 2.2% 6.6% 5.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 10.5% 6.6% 6.2% 3.4% 7.7% 7.5% 7.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.6% 2.9% 2.7% 1.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 12.8% 8.3% 7.7% 5.4% 9.4% 8.2% 8.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 6.2% 3.2% 1.6% 1.0% 2.6% 3.1% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.7% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.5% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 11.6% 7.6% 7.3% 4.9% 8.7% 7.1% 6.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.1% 13.5% 7.9% 4.2% 1.1% 6.7% 4.0% 12.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 3.6% 2.8% 2.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 7.4% 4.7% 3.5% 1.9% 4.3% 3.1% 5.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 13.9% 9.5% 8.6% 6.1% 9.3% 7.8% 7.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.5% 7.7% 4.9% 2.6% 0.5% 3.3% 2.0% 6.3% Logistic Regression 1.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.1% 12.5% 11.0% 6.0% 6.0% 11.6% 6.1% 8.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.4% 3.8% 3.3% 2.2% 3.9% 3.2% 2.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 7.1% 5.5% 3.9% 3.1% 5.8% 3.9% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 13.7% 9.4% 8.6% 6.1% 9.2% 8.0% 7.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 7.7% 6.5% 3.5% 3.0% 5.8% 3.0% 4.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian 1.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 15.9% 12.7% 6.7% 4.4% 8.2% 11.6% 4.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 8.5% 6.3% 4.3% 2.8% 5.0% 5.6% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 14.3% 9.6% 8.6% 6.1% 9.8% 9.0% 8.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.2% 10.9% 8.3% 4.3% 2.7% 4.6% 5.8% 2.4% Logistic Regression 2.3% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1% DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.1% 33.4% 28.9% 10.6% 11.6% 15.5% 13.6% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.4% 4.2% 3.1% 2.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 13.2% 10.5% 5.4% 4.7% 7.0% 5.7% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 14.7% 10.0% 8.8% 6.4% 10.1% 8.5% 7.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.0% 18.7% 15.9% 5.8% 6.3% 7.7% 6.8% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian 0.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 35.5% 23.0% 16.4% 9.7% 29.6% 12.4% 24.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.6% 5.4% 4.3% 2.9% 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 16.6% 10.5% 7.7% 4.8% 11.6% 6.2% 8.7% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 16.2% 11.0% 9.4% 7.2% 10.8% 10.2% 9.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.0% 21.7% 14.5% 10.2% 5.3% 15.3% 6.2% 12.4% Logistic Regression 3.6% 5.5% 3.7% 3.3% 1.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.8% Bayesian 1.0% 4.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.2% 30.7% 18.5% 10.8% 8.0% 23.7% 17.4% 30.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 9.0% 5.5% 4.0% 2.8% 5.1% 4.3% 4.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 14.4% 8.7% 5.7% 4.0% 9.7% 7.5% 10.6% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 16.6% 11.2% 9.2% 6.9% 10.3% 10.2% 10.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 18.8% 11.2% 6.4% 4.5% 12.3% 8.7% 15.3% Logistic Regression 3.6% 5.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.3% 3.9% 1.4% 1.3% Bayesian 1.8% 4.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 36.7% 22.5% 14.3% 8.7% 20.8% 23.0% 38.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 12.8% 7.1% 4.6% 2.9% 5.6% 6.5% 4.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 18.8% 10.9% 7.0% 4.3% 9.4% 10.6% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 20.1% 12.4% 9.4% 7.1% 10.9% 11.8% 12.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.4% 23.8% 14.7% 9.1% 4.8% 10.4% 11.5% 19.1% Logistic Regression 4.4% 11.1% 5.5% 4.0% 1.7% 4.3% 2.0% 1.6% Bayesian 4.3% 7.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 5.7% 0.4% DTOPS 5.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 41.2% 18.6% 6.4% 2.2% 29.2% 27.5% 44.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 14.2% 7.9% 5.0% 3.3% 5.5% 5.9% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 19.8% 10.1% 5.0% 2.8% 11.0% 11.2% 14.8% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.6% 11.8% 8.9% 6.7% 10.7% 11.3% 12.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 22.6% 10.3% 3.2% 1.1% 14.6% 13.7% 22.2% Logistic Regression 4.8% 17.0% 8.8% 5.8% 3.0% 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% Bayesian 1.3% 8.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% 0.5% DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 23.7% 9.6% 3.0% 1.3% 28.2% 22.3% 42.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.0% 5.5% 3.1% 2.2% 4.2% 4.7% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 12.7% 6.5% 3.0% 1.9% 10.2% 9.0% 14.1% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 16.8% 11.1% 8.3% 6.2% 10.6% 11.5% 13.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 14.3% 5.8% 2.0% 0.6% 14.6% 11.1% 21.2% Logistic Regression 2.5% 5.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% Bayesian 1.1% 5.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.9% 34.2% 18.6% 7.5% 4.9% 20.2% 30.3% 35.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 14.9% 7.5% 4.0% 2.8% 6.0% 7.1% 5.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 19.7% 10.2% 4.8% 3.3% 9.5% 12.8% 13.0% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 19.6% 12.1% 8.7% 6.7% 11.3% 12.8% 13.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 20.6% 10.8% 3.7% 2.4% 10.1% 15.1% 17.6% Logistic Regression 4.7% 17.7% 7.7% 3.0% 1.5% 5.7% 4.4% 2.8% Bayesian 1.5% 7.3% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 4.0% 0.4% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bret at 06/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 32.0% 26.9% 10.3% 7.5% 31.8% 31.7% 40.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 22.1% 14.2% 7.1% 4.2% 8.3% 12.2% 6.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 5.3% 30.3% 16.0% 9.7% 7.7% 12.2% 13.9% 15.1% AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 8.6% 29.9% 19.4% 11.2% 4.3% 8.7% 5.0% 3.3% Bayesian 1.9% 6.1% 7.0% 0.4% 0.6% 4.1% 17.8% 1.6% DTOPS 4.0% 25.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 06/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.3% 37.9% 31.7% 9.9% 4.7% 32.0% 35.6% 38.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 20.5% 14.6% 7.3% 4.4% 8.1% 10.0% 5.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 24.8% 18.9% 7.9% 4.4% 14.0% 16.4% 13.9% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 26.1% 14.0% 9.7% 7.7% 12.1% 13.6% 14.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.1% 32.9% 20.8% 6.4% 3.3% 19.0% 19.3% 19.6% Logistic Regression 10.4% 27.0% 19.6% 11.2% 4.1% 7.5% 3.9% 1.8% Bayesian 3.1% 8.4% 10.4% 1.1% 1.4% 4.7% 12.6% 1.0% DTOPS 4.0% 28.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 06/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.6% 30.5% 19.4% 9.3% 4.1% 22.7% 30.2% 38.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 27.0% 16.3% 6.5% 3.9% 9.3% 11.8% 6.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 27.9% 17.0% 7.2% 4.0% 12.6% 16.4% 14.6% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 26.8% 14.8% 9.8% 7.8% 12.0% 13.9% 15.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 22.7% 11.7% 5.1% 2.0% 12.8% 15.6% 20.9% Logistic Regression 9.3% 25.0% 15.2% 6.0% 2.6% 9.4% 6.7% 2.8% Bayesian 5.9% 29.3% 18.7% 3.7% 1.5% 6.4% 14.8% 1.6% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------