Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Don intensity image current Don RI diff image

 


Don at 07/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 7.4% 5.7% 4.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 6.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 8 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 13.3% 9.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.1% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.3% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 12.8% 9.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.1% 4.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 14.0% 9.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 4.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 6.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.5% 5.0% 3.6% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.3% 5.0% 3.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.2% 10.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 5.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 7.1% 3.9% 2.9% 1.5% 6.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.8% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 11.9% 8.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 3.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4% 1.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 11.5% 8.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 10.4% 7.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.7% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 10.7% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 10.5% 7.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 10.7% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.4%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 11.5% 8.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.4% 5.6% 3.2% 1.4% 0.8% 4.3% 3.3% 1.9%
Bayesian 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 6.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.8% 4.9% 3.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.6% 4.3% 2.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 12.4% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 5.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 3.3% 7.8% 5.6% 2.5% 1.2% 5.4% 2.3% 0.5%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.2% 3.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.6% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 11.4% 8.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.0% 4.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 78 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.5% 3.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 12.1% 8.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.0% 4.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.7% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 11.2% 8.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.6% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 11.3% 8.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.9% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.1% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 55 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 55 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.4% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 41 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.0% 5.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 10.6% 7.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 70 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 9.3% 6.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.8% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 10.3% 7.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 10.4% 7.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.0% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 12.6% 9.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.8% 7.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 10.6% 7.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.7% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 10.9% 7.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Don at 07/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 11.8% 8.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------