Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


Gert at 09/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.6% 9.5% 6.6% 4.6% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 5.6% 4.3% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.1% 2.8% 3.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8% 2.1% 2.3% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 10.0% 6.6% 6.1% 3.3% 8.1% 9.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% N/A
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 3.1% 3.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 2.3% 2.7% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 9.8% 6.5% 6.2% 3.3% 7.7% 8.9% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% N/A
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 2.8% 3.2% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.7% 5.6% 5.6% 2.6% 7.5% 8.6% 11.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 2.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.3% 3.1% 3.2% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% 2.3% 2.4% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 10.2% 6.9% 6.7% 3.7% 8.0% 8.4% 10.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 0.2% 3.2% 4.2% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.1% 2.4% 3.2% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 10.8% 7.5% 5.5% 0.0% 7.9% 9.7% 11.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 4.5%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.2% 2.8% 3.3% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.1% 2.2% 2.5% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 10.4% 7.0% 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% 8.1% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 2.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 5.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0.1% 2.4% 2.7% 4.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.8% 2.1% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.2% 6.2% 4.3% 0.0% 6.1% 6.4% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 2.8% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 3.3%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.5% 2.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.8% 6.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.9%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.8% 2.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.5% 5.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 6.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.7% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.8% 5.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.1% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 1.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 9.3% 6.3% 6.1% 3.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 3.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 1.4% 2.7% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 7.2% 4.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.5% 0.7% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.3% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 3.0% 1.1% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 12.3% 8.5% 7.4% 4.5% 7.4% 0.0% 6.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.9% 7.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.8%
Bayesian 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.3% 6.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.9% 5.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 12.5% 8.6% 1.6% 2.9% 1.7% 8.3% 9.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 6.5% 4.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 3.1% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.8% 12.5% 7.1% 3.3% 0.9% 4.2% 3.9% 5.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 5.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.0% 2.4% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 3.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.3% 3.9% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 7.5% 4.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.1% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.3% 4.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 2.5% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 4.8% 21.3% 13.2% 2.4% 0.8% 4.7% 6.1% 15.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1.8% 4.6% 7.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 7.9% 4.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2.6% 3.9% 7.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.5% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2.4% 4.1% 7.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.0% 21.1% 13.4% 3.2% 1.3% 7.2% 11.4% 21.9%
Bayesian 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 2.9% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.9% 3.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 4.3% 1.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.4% 3.9% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 13.0% 8.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 2.2% 3.9%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.8% 14.8% 10.1% 6.7% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.4% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.8% 5.7% 3.8% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 8.2% 5.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.4% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gert at 08/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.2% 1.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 5.9% 7.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% 2.4% 11.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 1.2% 5.5% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 7.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.0% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Six at 08/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 4.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------