Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Idalia at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 12.2% 8.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.9% 2.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 13.0% 8.8% 7.2% 4.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.5% 3.9% 3.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.3% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 14.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 16.4% 11.3% 9.6% 7.9% 10.6% 9.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.6% 5.4% 4.1% 3.1% 4.3% 3.8% 2.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.3% 3.2% 2.8% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 17.6% 12.1% 10.3% 8.8% 12.1% 11.4% 6.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 5.1% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.7% 4.9% 3.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.9% 1.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.0% 3.6% 2.8% 2.1% 3.1% 2.9% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 16.6% 11.5% 9.9% 8.3% 12.0% 11.7% 5.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.4% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.1% 5.4% 4.2% 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% 2.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.5% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.0% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 17.7% 12.4% 11.2% 8.7% 13.1% 12.0% 6.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.2% 4.5% 3.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.6% 2.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.7% 3.4% 2.7% 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 16.3% 11.4% 9.8% 7.5% 11.4% 10.8% 6.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.2% 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 15.6% 10.7% 9.0% 6.7% 10.2% 9.9% 7.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.9% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 35.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 183 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.7% 2.4% 6.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 5.7% 5.4% 3.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 15.0% 10.7% 8.7% 5.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.8% 1.2% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.1% 5.6% 4.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 171 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.7% 7.7% 9.4% 4.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 24.2% 17.7% 12.3% 6.8% 3.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.8% 15.1% 11.6% 6.2% 3.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 21.2% 30.3% 21.9% 10.2% 9.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 3.8% 4.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.4% 21.3% 14.3% 7.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 32.1% 1.4% 0.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.8% 21.4% 23.2% 26.8% 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 24.6% 27.6% 18.1% 16.5% 5.6% 5.6% 3.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.1% 26.0% 19.4% 19.0% 6.3% 4.2% 2.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 25.0% 43.8% 30.9% 20.2% 10.7% 11.6% 9.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.9% 10.7% 11.6% 13.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.9% 30.5% 19.2% 12.7% 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 27.0% 8.6% 4.3% 16.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 44.2% 43.1% 49.7% 39.3% 30.5% 9.8% 1.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 23.8% 41.9% 28.4% 29.0% 13.8% 10.9% 4.6% 3.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 28.9% 42.2% 33.7% 31.6% 17.9% 10.6% 3.6% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 22.8% 51.7% 38.3% 27.6% 20.7% 17.7% 12.2% 9.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 47.1% 21.5% 24.8% 19.6% 15.2% 4.9% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.7% 47.8% 34.3% 29.8% 16.0% 13.9% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian 23.9% 26.2% 12.5% 29.7% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 35.2% 56.6% 53.4% 42.7% 38.7% 31.7% 6.9% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 15.7% 35.9% 22.3% 19.4% 12.9% 13.4% 5.6% 3.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.5% 41.1% 30.1% 25.2% 19.3% 17.9% 5.9% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 21.8% 52.5% 38.6% 31.1% 25.8% 21.5% 13.4% 11.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 42.6% 49.8% 36.7% 28.8% 23.8% 15.8% 3.4% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.8% 39.3% 24.3% 19.5% 11.6% 17.6% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian 10.5% 16.0% 4.1% 7.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 50.0% 43.0% 20.0% 15.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.0% 37.6% 36.0% 15.0% 20.6% 16.5% 8.7% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 22.9% 12.5% 11.0% 7.7% 12.1% 6.6% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.4% 26.6% 18.3% 12.0% 10.9% 13.2% 7.1% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 17.3% 42.1% 26.5% 22.0% 17.1% 19.2% 13.5% 12.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.0% 63.3% 58.0% 39.5% 26.8% 10.2% 4.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 7.7% 18.7% 9.5% 10.0% 6.0% 16.4% 6.4% 0.1% Bayesian 4.6% 8.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 26.0% 89.0% 80.0% 64.0% 33.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.6% 36.2% 37.1% 19.6% 17.1% 8.0% 16.2% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 27.3% 16.3% 13.4% 10.5% 17.9% 10.2% 4.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 29.5% 21.5% 14.9% 12.1% 15.4% 11.7% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 18.1% 46.7% 32.4% 24.3% 22.4% 29.1% 15.5% 14.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 47.1% 38.5% 25.8% 14.0% 15.0% 8.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 8.2% 24.9% 14.4% 14.6% 8.9% 23.4% 14.8% 0.3% Bayesian 2.0% 10.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 58.0% 40.0% 32.0% 11.0% 22.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.0% 45.1% 33.5% 29.9% 25.1% 36.9% 27.3% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 21.1% 12.8% 11.6% 6.7% 13.1% 9.2% 5.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 27.0% 17.9% 16.1% 11.3% 19.0% 13.7% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 39.8% 25.5% 20.9% 13.5% 20.8% 14.6% 14.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.5% 42.0% 29.7% 20.9% 14.0% 29.4% 14.6% 3.2% Logistic Regression 7.3% 18.4% 11.2% 13.1% 6.4% 17.8% 12.7% 1.1% Bayesian 3.0% 5.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 39.0% 26.0% 12.0% 3.0% 22.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 31.8% 26.5% 28.2% 10.8% 16.7% 42.1% 31.2% 15.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 15.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.0% 7.2% 6.4% 6.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 18.5% 8.5% 4.4% 4.8% 15.9% 12.6% 9.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.9% 33.2% 28.6% 14.4% 11.3% 42.0% 23.1% 8.4% Logistic Regression 3.6% 9.8% 5.0% 6.3% 2.8% 20.4% 18.4% 4.8% Bayesian 4.9% 4.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% DTOPS 8.0% 40.0% 29.0% 18.0% 6.0% 42.0% 15.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 28.2% 17.0% 13.7% 8.5% 27.0% 32.0% 18.7% SHIPS Consensus 15.8% 38.6% 26.8% 21.8% 10.8% 26.6% 22.9% 17.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.6% 36.0% 24.3% 19.7% 10.2% 26.7% 25.1% 17.6% SHIPS-RII 19.6% 52.8% 39.8% 29.6% 21.4% 40.2% 34.2% 29.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.5% 27.6% 13.5% 12.8% 5.2% 20.5% 33.5% 10.3% Logistic Regression 16.2% 39.2% 27.6% 22.6% 9.2% 35.1% 33.2% 22.2% Bayesian 11.6% 23.9% 12.9% 13.1% 1.9% 4.5% 1.3% 0.2% DTOPS 22.0% 27.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2.0% 14.0% 35.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 49.7% 32.6% 28.9% 11.8% 51.0% 36.2% 29.7% SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 33.0% 22.9% 18.5% 7.5% 23.0% 23.0% 20.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 37.1% 25.2% 21.0% 8.5% 30.0% 26.2% 22.8% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 44.8% 30.3% 19.6% 11.3% 29.4% 36.8% 34.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 41.3% 21.8% 18.4% 7.4% 29.5% 39.6% 16.3% Logistic Regression 13.8% 41.9% 30.8% 26.6% 9.7% 32.7% 30.2% 26.0% Bayesian 9.2% 12.3% 7.5% 9.2% 1.4% 6.9% 1.9% 0.8% DTOPS 10.0% 33.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 8.0% 43.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Idalia at 08/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 26.0% 22.3% 14.4% 4.0% 46.3% 29.8% 26.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 8.7% 5.3% 4.1% 2.3% 6.4% 10.8% 16.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 11.3% 8.6% 5.8% 2.3% 15.0% 14.1% 16.8% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 15.7% 10.7% 8.4% 5.8% 11.2% 14.1% 23.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 20.5% 12.6% 8.7% 2.5% 28.6% 22.4% 14.8% Logistic Regression 3.1% 9.7% 4.9% 3.8% 1.0% 7.7% 17.4% 23.3% Bayesian 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.1% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 23.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 08/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 18.3% 8.0% 4.6% 2.4% 7.8% 6.8% 25.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 15.9% 9.0% 4.6% 2.9% 9.2% 11.9% 25.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 16.5% 8.7% 4.6% 2.7% 8.8% 10.6% 25.5% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 15.8% 10.6% 8.0% 5.6% 10.2% 12.9% 27.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 13.1% 5.5% 3.3% 1.7% 4.9% 4.4% 14.0% Logistic Regression 6.1% 30.5% 16.1% 5.7% 3.0% 17.4% 22.3% 43.0% Bayesian 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 6.4% DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 08/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 17.8% 8.3% 3.7% 3.2% 8.5% 16.2% 23.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 12.0% 7.8% 4.3% 2.4% 5.3% 7.3% 18.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 13.4% 7.9% 4.1% 2.5% 6.0% 9.5% 19.6% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 16.7% 11.5% 8.7% 6.2% 10.4% 13.0% 27.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 16.9% 7.1% 3.8% 2.1% 6.2% 11.1% 15.8% Logistic Regression 4.0% 18.0% 11.5% 3.9% 0.8% 5.3% 8.9% 22.6% Bayesian 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 5.3% DTOPS 2.0% 16.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 08/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 24.7% 14.7% 5.0% 2.2% 7.7% 16.0% 34.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 18.6% 14.7% 9.3% 3.5% 9.2% 10.5% 22.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 20.1% 14.7% 8.2% 3.2% 8.8% 11.8% 25.4% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 19.7% 12.8% 9.6% 7.1% 11.4% 14.2% 29.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 18.3% 10.3% 4.0% 1.1% 5.8% 10.0% 19.4% Logistic Regression 6.7% 35.1% 30.4% 17.7% 3.4% 15.9% 15.7% 31.6% Bayesian 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 5.7% DTOPS 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 08/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.7% 23.1% 17.3% 7.1% 4.6% 15.5% 22.2% 41.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 17.8% 13.9% 9.0% 1.1% 4.9% 9.2% 7.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 19.1% 14.7% 8.5% 1.9% 7.5% 12.4% 15.7% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 18.2% 12.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.3% 16.0% 10.1% 4.0% 2.3% 8.7% 11.6% 21.9% Logistic Regression 10.5% 32.3% 26.0% 14.3% 2.9% 14.1% 15.1% 16.2% Bayesian 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 4.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 4.9% DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------