Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Katia at 09/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 11.3% 8.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 11.1% 8.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.9% 7.1% 4.9% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 9.6% 6.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 9.0% 6.4% 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 9.0% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 6.9% 4.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.1% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 8.2% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 7.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 7.4% 5.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 15.5% 11.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 5.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 80 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 5.3% 5.7% 1.5% 0.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 7.0% 5.4% 2.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 6.5% 5.4% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 14.2% 10.1% 6.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 3.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 6.6% 5.4% 1.2% 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 4.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Katia at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 3.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.8% 2.2% 1.3% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 10.9% 7.6% 6.6% 3.9% 7.5% 6.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 9.8% 5.7% 4.0% 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.8% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 11.7% 8.1% 7.1% 4.5% 7.9% 6.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 5.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 8.6% 4.4% 2.8% 0.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.6% 1.3% 3.4% 3.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 12.8% 8.7% 7.3% 4.8% 8.6% 9.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 5.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------