Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Lee at 09/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 5 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 73 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 8.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 12.5% 8.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 3.5% 10.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                         Lee at 09/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 13.2% 9.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 6.2% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.9% 3.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 14.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 4.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 2.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 6.6% 4.3% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.4% 3.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 14.2% 10.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 4.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 3.4% 4.6% 1.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 9.7% 6.8% 4.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 8.1% 6.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 15.9% 11.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 6.2% 5.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.8% 12.2% 8.0% 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 8.1% 5.7% 4.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.7% 5.0% 3.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 14.1% 10.2% 8.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.1% 9.9% 8.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.8% 8.9% 6.2% 3.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 17.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 5.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 7.7% 5.4% 3.9% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 7.1% 4.6% 3.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 14.4% 10.4% 8.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.6% 12.2% 7.6% 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.3% 7.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 19.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 4.7% 3.3% 1.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 9.2% 7.2% 4.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 8.0% 6.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 15.1% 11.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 12.3% 9.6% 3.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.6% 11.4% 9.3% 5.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian 3.7% 1.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 14.0% 20.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.8% 6.4% 8.1% 1.4% 3.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 8.9% 7.3% 4.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 8.2% 7.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 14.8% 10.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.9% 14.7% 12.0% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.6% 11.2% 9.8% 6.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian 3.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 13.0% 23.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.7% 3.5% 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 8.5% 7.0% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 7.3% 6.1% 3.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 15.9% 11.5% 9.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 12.8% 9.7% 4.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.7% 8.9% 7.5% 4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian 4.1% 0.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 14.0% 22.0% 16.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.9% 11.6% 9.6% 1.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 19.5% 15.7% 15.2% 8.3% 4.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.1% 14.6% 13.8% 6.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 22.6% 21.7% 17.3% 10.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.4% 22.3% 17.3% 5.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.0% 20.4% 19.1% 11.7% 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 0.4% Bayesian 17.1% 5.0% 9.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 23.0% 33.0% 25.0% 9.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 17.2% 14.1% 7.9% 11.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 24.5% 22.2% 20.9% 11.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 18.6% 16.5% 9.4% 7.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 27.8% 27.1% 21.5% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.8% 29.6% 17.0% 10.4% 9.1% 7.6% 3.6% 0.1% Logistic Regression 21.6% 24.7% 24.8% 17.1% 5.6% 5.7% 2.0% 0.4% Bayesian 24.2% 15.0% 16.5% 5.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 51.0% 50.0% 40.0% 22.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.9% 21.4% 30.0% 7.6% 10.3% 5.8% 1.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 11.6% 9.7% 6.4% 4.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 14.0% 14.7% 6.6% 5.6% 5.3% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 17.1% 17.3% 12.4% 10.0% 8.3% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.4% 43.7% 41.5% 17.8% 8.1% 18.9% 3.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 10.6% 12.7% 12.5% 8.0% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 22.0% 66.0% 53.0% 28.0% 6.0% 32.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 27.5% 24.6% 20.6% 8.2% 16.9% 6.0% 2.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 7.4% 5.9% 4.6% 3.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 11.7% 9.5% 5.5% 6.6% 4.8% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 15.3% 10.8% 9.3% 7.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 33.7% 50.3% 42.3% 18.1% 13.9% 27.5% 12.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 4.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 40.0% 76.0% 64.0% 28.0% 11.0% 49.0% 22.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.1% 24.3% 17.3% 12.3% 16.6% 8.1% 0.6% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 3.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 12.7% 9.9% 7.1% 6.9% 5.5% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 16.5% 11.7% 9.8% 8.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 15.0% 34.1% 16.1% 10.1% 9.8% 15.5% 4.8% 0.7% Logistic Regression 6.0% 8.9% 9.3% 6.1% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 44.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.2% 24.5% 27.9% 13.0% 16.6% 5.9% 1.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 8.1% 7.3% 5.4% 3.5% 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 12.2% 12.4% 7.2% 6.7% 5.0% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 13.2% 15.3% 11.1% 9.4% 7.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.1% 31.2% 27.4% 12.0% 10.3% 14.9% 10.6% 0.3% Logistic Regression 8.1% 7.3% 7.4% 6.0% 2.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 22.0% 38.0% 27.0% 11.0% 4.0% 24.0% 20.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.9% 24.4% 29.6% 4.9% 12.3% 9.8% 0.9% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 3.2% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 11.0% 11.4% 4.6% 5.4% 5.6% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 13.9% 10.0% 8.9% 7.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 29.4% 38.2% 33.8% 14.9% 10.6% 14.4% 4.9% 0.4% Logistic Regression 6.0% 5.2% 4.9% 4.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian 1.3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 36.0% 52.0% 38.0% 25.0% 9.0% 19.0% 9.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.7% 11.5% 3.3% 13.5% 8.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 3.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 5.7% 2.8% 5.2% 3.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 9.6% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.8% 12.7% 6.1% 8.7% 6.1% 5.2% 9.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 6.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 14.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% 17.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 6.0% 2.4% 3.0% 6.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.2% 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 6.4% 4.3% 3.3% 2.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 3.5% 1.7% 1.5% 3.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 4.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 3.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 10.5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 5.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 26.3% 12.0% 4.5% 3.1% 1.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.3% 10.3% 4.1% 3.0% 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 43.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 39.6% 15.2% 13.0% 7.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 35.4% 18.2% 13.4% 9.4% 2.8% 5.6% 3.8% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 73.0% 25.0% 23.0% 13.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 42.1% 39.5% 26.9% 18.8% 10.8% 8.2% 3.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 26.7% 19.1% 15.8% 10.3% 4.2% 5.5% 1.8% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.5% 24.1% 18.6% 12.4% 5.8% 6.1% 2.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 38.9% 44.0% 36.5% 26.2% 11.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 62.5% 69.2% 62.9% 57.9% 48.4% 47.6% 34.5% 0.3% Logistic Regression 24.5% 12.2% 9.1% 4.6% 1.1% 4.0% 5.3% 1.0% Bayesian 16.8% 1.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 83.0% 99.0% 99.0% 97.0% 86.0% 87.0% 66.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 43.5% 53.3% 47.7% 43.9% 36.1% 38.9% 22.0% 7.0% SHIPS Consensus 18.3% 36.0% 27.5% 14.5% 13.0% 16.4% 8.8% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.5% 40.3% 32.5% 21.8% 18.8% 21.9% 12.0% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 21.0% 36.7% 24.6% 21.0% 13.7% 20.4% 14.7% 16.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 62.2% 76.6% 73.3% 68.9% 67.0% 69.4% 54.0% 23.5% Logistic Regression 18.3% 20.9% 17.1% 13.5% 7.3% 11.3% 7.9% 2.9% Bayesian 15.5% 50.4% 40.8% 9.0% 18.2% 17.3% 3.7% 0.1% DTOPS 81.0% 100.0% 99.0% 94.0% 98.0% 100.0% 86.0% 40.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 33.9% 45.8% 42.5% 38.9% 19.2% 43.5% 20.4% 10.2% SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 23.6% 18.5% 10.2% 7.3% 14.2% 8.0% 6.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.6% 29.1% 24.5% 17.3% 10.2% 21.5% 11.0% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 32.3% 19.8% 19.6% 12.8% 19.1% 14.7% 16.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.4% 62.9% 47.2% 34.4% 21.1% 68.7% 56.7% 36.1% Logistic Regression 8.6% 11.9% 9.4% 6.9% 3.2% 7.5% 5.6% 3.0% Bayesian 5.9% 26.5% 26.3% 4.0% 5.7% 16.1% 3.6% 0.3% DTOPS 15.0% 80.0% 52.0% 30.0% 23.0% 94.0% 93.0% 62.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 39.8% 52.9% 40.2% 33.4% 28.3% 30.7% 36.4% 10.9% SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 36.6% 26.2% 14.4% 11.5% 20.3% 10.7% 7.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.3% 40.6% 29.7% 19.1% 15.7% 22.9% 17.1% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 16.2% 37.9% 25.0% 22.1% 15.6% 18.5% 15.6% 16.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 29.4% 38.9% 25.1% 22.2% 17.1% 53.8% 65.2% 37.9% Logistic Regression 11.1% 17.8% 13.2% 10.8% 6.1% 11.8% 9.3% 5.0% Bayesian 10.3% 54.1% 40.4% 10.4% 12.8% 30.6% 7.2% 0.4% DTOPS 19.0% 25.0% 10.0% 11.0% 6.0% 77.0% 94.0% 65.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.0% 54.8% 48.4% 25.5% 19.3% 27.0% 29.7% 12.5% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 35.2% 22.1% 10.3% 8.3% 19.5% 18.1% 9.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.2% 40.0% 28.6% 14.1% 11.0% 21.4% 20.9% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 12.8% 39.1% 25.4% 21.4% 14.4% 22.0% 19.9% 21.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.5% 38.4% 28.7% 17.7% 12.6% 31.5% 58.8% 35.2% Logistic Regression 9.5% 16.5% 10.9% 5.9% 3.4% 9.4% 9.8% 5.9% Bayesian 9.5% 50.0% 29.9% 3.7% 7.1% 27.2% 24.5% 1.5% DTOPS 12.0% 22.0% 9.0% 10.0% 6.0% 36.0% 88.0% 58.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.1% 57.3% 50.3% 35.5% 25.1% 38.8% 36.7% 19.4% SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 41.4% 28.1% 12.6% 9.7% 23.4% 22.6% 14.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.9% 45.4% 33.6% 18.3% 13.5% 27.2% 26.1% 15.5% SHIPS-RII 15.4% 47.0% 33.3% 22.6% 14.1% 27.8% 22.6% 29.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 28.0% 37.6% 28.6% 21.7% 14.5% 21.9% 39.3% 43.7% Logistic Regression 12.1% 20.8% 13.5% 9.3% 4.8% 12.0% 11.7% 10.8% Bayesian 8.1% 56.6% 37.5% 5.9% 10.2% 30.4% 33.5% 2.5% DTOPS 20.0% 18.0% 7.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 42.0% 68.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 34.1% 54.2% 38.7% 27.2% 8.1% 40.3% 41.6% 19.6% SHIPS Consensus 18.6% 38.6% 34.2% 12.4% 7.8% 27.3% 20.1% 17.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.4% 42.5% 35.3% 16.0% 7.8% 30.5% 25.4% 17.8% SHIPS-RII 18.5% 52.8% 38.4% 23.6% 14.5% 37.4% 37.3% 38.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 30.5% 50.1% 29.3% 23.6% 7.0% 27.1% 53.3% 51.8% Logistic Regression 18.5% 23.5% 16.0% 6.6% 2.2% 9.1% 11.6% 9.9% Bayesian 18.7% 39.6% 48.1% 6.9% 6.6% 35.5% 11.4% 3.1% DTOPS 27.0% 46.0% 20.0% 20.0% 6.0% 14.0% 65.0% 84.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.8% 52.6% 35.2% 11.9% 9.6% 31.7% 29.9% 30.5% SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 32.6% 24.2% 6.1% 4.7% 16.0% 33.9% 26.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 37.6% 26.9% 7.5% 5.8% 19.9% 32.9% 27.4% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 45.6% 28.5% 10.8% 9.8% 21.2% 31.3% 53.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 30.4% 56.3% 30.6% 13.4% 7.3% 24.8% 32.9% 59.7% Logistic Regression 13.5% 25.2% 13.6% 4.5% 1.6% 8.4% 13.0% 14.2% Bayesian 14.3% 27.0% 30.6% 3.0% 2.5% 18.6% 57.5% 11.0% DTOPS 32.0% 60.0% 26.0% 15.0% 5.0% 18.0% 36.0% 89.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lee at 09/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 28.5% 20.7% 13.4% 4.5% 27.3% 27.2% 39.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 26.6% 19.0% 6.1% 3.8% 11.3% 18.3% 21.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 27.0% 19.4% 7.9% 3.9% 15.3% 20.5% 25.8% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 42.7% 25.0% 10.4% 8.2% 16.9% 21.2% 33.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 31.7% 14.8% 8.7% 2.7% 18.1% 20.1% 62.0% Logistic Regression 8.8% 26.5% 16.5% 6.7% 2.2% 8.4% 8.1% 14.7% Bayesian 3.4% 10.6% 15.5% 1.3% 0.8% 8.6% 25.5% 16.4% DTOPS 5.0% 35.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 9.0% 13.0% 85.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 09/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.3% 34.2% 22.5% 15.4% 4.7% 29.0% 31.2% 35.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 26.8% 13.6% 5.5% 3.5% 9.4% 19.7% 23.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 28.6% 15.8% 7.9% 3.8% 14.2% 22.5% 26.7% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 31.3% 15.0% 9.4% 7.2% 12.1% 15.2% 31.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.6% 27.6% 13.7% 8.2% 2.3% 16.5% 19.1% 42.4% Logistic Regression 7.4% 30.3% 17.5% 6.2% 3.0% 10.2% 10.0% 20.6% Bayesian 2.0% 18.9% 8.2% 0.7% 0.3% 5.8% 33.7% 19.4% DTOPS 2.0% 21.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 49.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------