CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index (Reference)

Margot at 09/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	1.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.6%	4.8%	3.6%	2.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.4%	3.8%	2.7%	1.8%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	12.2%	8.8%	6.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.6%	2.2%	1.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 67 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.3%	0.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 75 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.0%	1.5%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 88 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 94 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 91 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 87 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.2%	4.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.1%	2.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 89 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.2%	3.4%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.2%	1.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 89 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	1.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	1.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	2.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 91 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	1.1%	3.0%	2.1%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.7%	2.4%	1.6%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	2.8%	8.4%	6.1%	4.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.5%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 92 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.2%	4.3%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.6%	3.3%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	5.6%	11.5%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.5%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.8%	1.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 102 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.3%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	6.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.3%	2.0%	1.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 109 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.8%	1.2%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.9%	3.9%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.9%	1.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 114 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.7%	2.7%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.5%	2.2%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	1.6%	7.9%	5.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	3.0%	3.3%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.0%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	4.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.0%	2.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.0%	1.2%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 121 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.2%	2.1%	2.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.3%	1.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	6.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.1%	1.5%	1.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.4%	2.3%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 130 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	1.2%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.1%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.0%	4.3%	3.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	6.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.5%	1.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.9%	4.0%	2.6%	1.3%	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
									Bayesian	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.8%	5.9%	2.4%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	6.1%	7.5%	5.4%	3.4%	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	4.7%	7.1%	4.6%	2.7%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	8.3%	15.6%	11.4%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.4%	4.9%	2.7%	0.9%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	5.6%	6.8%	4.8%	1.9%	0.7%	2.3%	0.5%	0.0%
									Bayesian	4.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	4.0%	4.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 133 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	2.5%	5.1%	2.7%	0.8%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.6%	7.2%	5.0%	3.1%	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	3.3%	6.6%	4.4%	2.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	6.4%	14.3%	10.3%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.7%	4.5%	2.8%	0.9%	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	3.5%	7.2%	4.8%	1.7%	0.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.0%
									Bayesian	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	3.0%	4.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.3%	3.0%	1.0%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	2.5%	6.2%	4.3%	3.4%	2.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.9%	5.3%	3.5%	2.7%	1.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	5.5%	13.8%	9.8%	8.7%	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.1%	7.0%	3.5%	1.3%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	1.6%	4.7%	3.3%	1.6%	0.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
									Bayesian	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	4.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.0%	1.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.5%	5.5%	2.2%	3.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.2%	6.9%	5.0%	3.4%	2.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.5%	6.5%	4.3%	3.3%	1.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	6.9%	15.5%	11.1%	9.2%	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.2%	5.7%	2.6%	2.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	2.0%	5.2%	3.9%	1.1%	0.3%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%
									Bayesian	0.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	4.0%	6.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	2.5%	6.0%	8.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS Consensus	3.9%	8.1%	5.9%	3.6%	2.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	3.5%	7.6%	6.6%	2.9%	1.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	7.7%	17.4%	12.4%	9.9%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	11.2%	12.0%	9.8%	2.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%	Logistic Regression	2.5%	6.9%	5.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%
									Bayesian	1.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	20.0%	18.0%	11.0%	4.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.3%	3.8%	2.8%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	SHIPS Consensus	4.0%	8.4%	5.8%	3.0%	0.1%	4.3%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	3.3%	7.2%	5.0%	2.3%	0.1%	3.1%	0.1%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	7.6%	17.7%	12.5%	8.2%	0.0%	11.6%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	5.1%	11.9%	7.4%	3.8%	0.6%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	Logistic Regression	2.5%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
									Bayesian	1.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	9.0%	20.0%	12.0%	7.0%	1.0%	3.0%	2.0%	1.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.6%	8.2%	5.9%	2.8%	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%	0.1%	SHIPS Consensus	5.9%	11.0%	7.5%	3.4%	0.1%	4.6%	0.2%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	6.5%	10.3%	7.1%	3.2%	0.2%	3.6%	0.4%	0.0%	SHIPS-RII	9.5%	23.5%	15.7%	8.7%	0.0%	12.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	12.8%	19.6%	8.4%	4.4%	1.2%	3.2%	2.4%	2.0%	Logistic Regression	4.5%	9.2%	6.5%	1.3%	0.3%	1.8%	0.7%	0.1%
									Bayesian	3.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	17.0%	31.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.0%	6.0%	4.0%	4.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	5.2%	7.8%	6.1%	3.4%	2.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	SHIPS Consensus	3.9%	8.6%	6.0%	3.2%	0.1%	4.2%	0.2%	0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	4.2%	8.3%	6.0%	3.2%	0.5%	3.1%	0.2%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	6.7%	18.2%	12.5%	8.1%	0.0%	11.3%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	6.1%	11.9%	5.0%	3.2%	1.5%	1.6%	2.2%	1.6%	Logistic Regression	3.6%	7.2%	5.1%	1.2%	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%
									Bayesian	1.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	7.0%	16.0%	4.0%	3.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.0%	3.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.6%	2.7%	2.2%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	SHIPS Consensus	2.2%	6.9%	4.6%	2.6%	0.1%	3.8%	0.1%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.8%	5.7%	3.9%	2.7%	0.0%	2.8%	0.1%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	5.0%	16.2%	10.9%	7.0%	0.0%	10.7%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.8%	8.8%	4.6%	3.1%	0.5%	2.0%	1.6%	1.7%	Logistic Regression	1.5%	4.4%	2.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
									Bayesian	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	6.0%	21.0%	10.0%	5.0%	3.0%	6.0%	3.0%	7.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.8%	3.4%	1.4%	2.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	SHIPS Consensus	3.6%	7.9%	5.3%	3.3%	2.2%	3.9%	0.1%	0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.8%	6.7%	4.3%	3.0%	1.6%	2.9%	0.1%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	6.2%	17.4%	11.9%	9.0%	6.3%	10.8%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	3.4%	12.2%	6.7%	5.1%	1.1%	6.0%	4.5%	3.1%	Logistic Regression	3.0%	6.2%	3.8%	0.9%	0.2%	0.8%	0.4%	0.3%
									Bayesian	1.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	6.0%	21.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.0%	12.0%	9.0%	6.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 144 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	2.4%	3.8%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	SHIPS Consensus	4.8%	7.7%	5.1%	3.7%	2.2%	4.0%	0.2%	0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	4.1%	6.7%	4.6%	3.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.1%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	6.1%	17.0%	11.6%	9.0%	6.3%	10.6%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	6.7%	15.4%	9.6%	5.6%	1.6%	6.0%	5.0%	5.6%	Logistic Regression	3.6%	5.2%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.3%
									Bayesian	4.5%	0.9%	0.8%	1.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	11.0%	27.0%	16.0%	10.0%	3.0%	12.0%	10.0%	11.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.3%	2.9%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	SHIPS Consensus	0.8%	4.5%	2.8%	2.3%	1.3%	2.7%	2.8%	0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.7%	4.0%	2.1%	1.9%	0.9%	2.1%	2.1%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	1.7%	11.5%	7.6%	6.5%	3.8%	7.8%	8.1%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.1%	4.9%	1.6%	1.5%	0.5%	1.1%	2.2%	3.2%	Logistic Regression	0.7%	1.9%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
									Bayesian	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	2.0%	7.0%	3.0%	2.0%	1.0%	2.0%	4.0%	6.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.7%	SHIPS Consensus	1.2%	4.3%	2.8%	2.4%	1.4%	2.9%	3.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.9%	3.3%	2.1%	1.8%	1.0%	2.1%	2.3%	0.1%	SHIPS-RII	2.6%	12.2%	8.3%	7.1%	4.3%	8.4%	8.7%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	3.0%	8.8%	4.5%	2.5%	1.0%	4.6%	7.1%	5.8%	Logistic Regression	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
									Bayesian	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	13.0%	21.0%	12.0%	5.0%	3.0%	12.0%	13.0%	22.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.9%	8.3%	9.1%	4.7%	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	SHIPS Consensus	2.0%	5.3%	3.3%	2.8%	1.7%	3.6%	3.4%	3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.0%	6.0%	4.7%	3.3%	1.5%	3.1%	2.9%	3.0%	SHIPS-RII	3.4%	13.0%	8.9%	7.6%	4.9%	9.2%	9.6%	10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.9%	11.6%	9.0%	4.8%	1.5%	3.3%	2.3%	4.0%	Logistic Regression	1.3%	2.6%	1.0%	0.8%	0.3%	1.6%	0.5%	0.4%
									Bayesian	1.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	2.0%	15.0%	9.0%	5.0%	2.0%	5.0%	3.0%	7.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.1%	12.6%	8.1%	3.7%	1.6%	2.8%	5.2%	1.8%	SHIPS Consensus	1.6%	5.1%	3.2%	2.7%	1.7%	3.4%	3.2%	0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.7%	6.9%	4.4%	2.9%	1.6%	3.2%	3.6%	0.5%	SHIPS-RII	2.4%	12.4%	8.3%	7.1%	4.6%	8.5%	8.5%	0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS	3.5%	9.8%	6.0%	2.8%	1.3%	2.9%	3.1%	3.9%	Logistic Regression	1.6%	2.8%	1.2%	0.9%	0.4%	1.6%	1.0%	0.4%
									Bayesian	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	7.0%	4.0%	2.0%	1.0%	3.0%	1.0%	6.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 128 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	2.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.7%	0.8%	1.2%	4.3%	2.6%	SHIPS Consensus	2.4%	5.3%	3.3%	2.8%	1.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.3%	6.1%	4.8%	3.0%	1.4%	3.0%	3.8%	3.4%	SHIPS-RII	3.2%	12.7%	8.6%	7.3%	4.5%	8.5%	9.3%	10.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS	2.1%	11.3%	8.2%	3.8%	0.9%	3.6%	4.1%	4.3%	Logistic Regression	2.0%	3.0%	1.2%	1.0%	0.4%	2.4%	1.7%	0.6%
									Bayesian	2.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
									DTOPS	2.0%	14.0%	7.0%	4.0%	1.0%	6.0%	4.0%	6.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 130 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	3.3%	9.4%	9.9%	1.2%	0.4%	3.7%	3.8%	1.7%	SHIPS Consensus	2.2%	5.3%	3.3%	2.8%	1.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.5%	6.3%	4.9%	2.4%	1.3%	3.7%	3.6%	3.0%	SHIPS-RII	3.4%	12.8%	8.7%	7.4%	4.7%	8.6%	9.0%	10.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS	3.1%	9.2%	6.9%	2.1%	0.7%	3.3%	3.4%	8.8%	Logistic Regression	1.8%	2.8%	1.2%	0.9%	0.4%	2.4%	1.6%	0.5%
									Bayesian	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
									DTOPS	3.0%	9.0%	4.0%	2.0%	1.0%	3.0%	3.0%	25.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 133 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	2.3%	2.0%	2.0%	SHIPS Consensus	0.7%	3.3%	2.1%	1.8%	0.8%	2.3%	2.6%	3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.6%	2.9%	1.6%	1.4%	0.6%	2.3%	2.4%	3.0%	SHIPS-RII	1.4%	9.1%	5.9%	5.4%	2.4%	6.7%	7.3%	9.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.7%	5.8%	2.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.6%	3.5%	7.5%	Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
									Bayesian	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	10.0%	4.0%	3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	5.0%	13.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	1.8%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%	1.4%	3.7%	SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	3.9%	2.5%	2.2%	1.3%	2.7%	2.8%	3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.1%	3.3%	1.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.1%	2.4%	3.4%	SHIPS-RII	0.0%	11.0%	7.3%	6.6%	3.9%	7.7%	7.9%	9.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.5%	3.9%	1.6%	0.7%	0.5%	1.2%	1.7%	7.3%	Logistic Regression	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
									Bayesian	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	6.0%	3.0%	1.0%	1.0%	2.0%	2.0%	11.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.6%	6.2%	3.4%	2.1%	0.2%	2.4%	4.8%	8.3%	SHIPS Consensus	1.1%	4.4%	2.8%	2.4%	1.4%	3.2%	3.3%	4.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	0.9%	4.8%	2.9%	2.3%	1.1%	2.9%	3.6%	5.1%	SHIPS-RII	1.9%	11.1%	7.4%	6.7%	4.0%	8.1%	8.3%	10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.8%	5.6%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%	2.7%	3.9%	9.1%	Logistic Regression	1.2%	1.8%	0.9%	0.6%	0.2%	1.3%	1.6%	1.3%
									Bayesian	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	5.0%	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	3.0%	3.0%	10.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.0%	7.0%	2.3%	3.6%	0.3%	5.0%	7.6%	7.1%	SHIPS Consensus	1.4%	5.4%	3.2%	2.7%	1.6%	4.0%	3.7%	5.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.3%	5.8%	2.9%	2.9%	1.2%	4.2%	4.6%	5.5%	SHIPS-RII	1.6%	10.9%	7.2%	6.5%	3.7%	8.1%	8.6%	11.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.0%	6.5%	2.6%	2.3%	0.6%	4.5%	4.8%	5.0%	Logistic Regression	2.2%	4.6%	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	3.7%	2.5%	3.4%
									Bayesian	0.5%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	6.0%	3.0%	1.0%	1.0%	4.0%	2.0%	3.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Margot at 09/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.3%	5.8%	2.9%	1.3%	0.2%	4.3%	4.1%	7.6%	SHIPS Consensus	2.2%	7.1%	4.4%	3.2%	1.9%	4.1%	4.4%	5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	1.7%	6.7%	3.9%	2.7%	1.5%	4.1%	4.3%	6.1%	SHIPS-RII	3.3%	14.0%	9.4%	7.8%	5.2%	9.5%	10.4%	12.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS	0.6%	5.4%	2.4%	1.1%	0.1%	3.1%	4.5%	5.3%	Logistic Regression	2.6%	5.2%	2.9%	1.8%	0.6%	2.6%	2.8%	4.2%
									Bayesian	0.6%	2.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
									DTOPS	1.0%	5.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	2.0%	5.0%	3.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fourteen at 09/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.0%	14.0%	8.3%	2.4%	0.7%	9.1%	6.2%	11.9%	SHIPS Consensus	3.3%	8.9%	6.3%	4.1%	2.4%	5.3%	5.0%	5.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	2.6%	10.1%	6.8%	3.6%	1.9%	6.2%	5.2%	6.9%	SHIPS-RII	3.9%	15.5%	10.5%	8.5%	6.0%	10.4%	11.7%	13.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS	1.5%	11.5%	6.1%	2.2%	0.3%	6.0%	5.1%	7.4%	Logistic Regression	4.2%	8.9%	6.2%	3.7%	1.1%	4.5%	2.8%	2.6%
									Bayesian	1.7%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%	0.1%	1.0%	0.4%	0.0%
									DTOPS	2.0%	9.0%	4.0%	2.0%	0.0%	3.0%	4.0%	3.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fourteen at 09/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities									SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.3%	17.4%	9.9%	4.8%	0.7%	10.5%	5.1%	11.7%	SHIPS Consensus	8.9%	20.2%	13.6%	5.9%	3.5%	9.7%	9.6%	8.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus	8.7%	19.5%	12.6%	5.6%	2.8%	9.8%	8.4%	9.1%	SHIPS-RII	4.8%	18.2%	12.1%	9.2%	7.0%	11.2%	12.9%	15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS	4.6%	11.7%	5.9%	2.9%	0.3%	5.7%	4.0%	7.3%	Logistic Regression	15.2%	24.0%	17.1%	8.0%	3.2%	12.2%	9.5%	9.2%
									Bayesian	6.7%	18.5%	11.4%	0.4%	0.4%	5.7%	6.3%	0.2%
									DTOPS	1.0%	6.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	3.0%	3.0%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------									-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------