Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fifteen intensity image current Fifteen RI diff image

 


Nigel at 09/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 22 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 21 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 58 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 56 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 56 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 10.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 5.7% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 4.7% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 14.7% 10.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 2.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 13.0% 6.7% 4.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.1% 5.6% 4.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.2% 16.3% 11.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 4.1% 3.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.7% 3.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 16.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 6.7% 7.7% 2.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 5.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 6.0% 4.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 14.9% 10.5% 9.0% 7.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 9.8% 8.3% 3.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 13.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 6.3% 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.6% 3.6% 2.6% 1.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 15.2% 10.9% 9.4% 7.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 19.8% 13.6% 11.7% 4.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 18.0% 36.0% 26.0% 23.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 14.7% 10.6% 8.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 9.9% 7.4% 4.9% 3.3% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 11.1% 8.2% 5.7% 3.3% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 16.0% 11.5% 9.8% 8.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 18.3% 12.3% 8.1% 2.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.0% 10.1% 7.3% 4.2% 1.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 6.0% 3.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 22.0% 14.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.1% 13.9% 11.5% 7.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 13.8% 10.2% 6.4% 4.6% 6.5% 1.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.7% 13.8% 10.4% 6.7% 3.8% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 17.6% 12.4% 10.5% 9.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.0% 22.9% 14.2% 8.9% 2.8% 9.6% 4.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 9.1% 19.7% 15.4% 8.0% 4.5% 6.8% 3.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.1% 4.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 32.0% 17.0% 10.0% 4.0% 18.0% 7.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.8% 13.9% 10.4% 7.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 17.3% 22.9% 16.3% 8.3% 4.9% 10.1% 9.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.9% 20.6% 14.8% 7.9% 3.9% 8.0% 6.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 30.1% 20.4% 16.9% 12.1% 19.2% 19.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 12.9% 22.9% 16.9% 5.2% 2.0% 7.6% 7.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 25.3% 15.6% 11.6% 2.7% 0.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.0% 30.3% 24.3% 10.4% 11.3% 4.6% 1.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 30.9% 42.2% 35.6% 20.4% 12.8% 21.9% 14.0% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.3% 34.6% 27.6% 15.2% 11.6% 16.6% 10.6% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 22.5% 43.9% 33.4% 25.5% 23.3% 32.0% 27.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 27.5% 39.6% 22.6% 12.2% 7.6% 11.3% 8.7% 2.5% Logistic Regression 29.3% 46.5% 42.4% 23.6% 10.2% 24.0% 14.0% 1.2%
Bayesian 40.8% 36.1% 31.1% 12.1% 4.8% 9.6% 0.3% 0.0%
DTOPS 37.0% 54.0% 26.0% 18.0% 5.0% 20.0% 14.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.7% 32.5% 26.3% 18.7% 19.4% 4.8% 2.8% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 24.9% 43.6% 38.7% 25.5% 15.6% 29.2% 22.3% 9.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 32.3% 44.9% 40.0% 30.3% 18.9% 24.4% 16.6% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 20.5% 51.4% 39.4% 33.3% 28.1% 45.6% 41.4% 26.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 35.3% 56.2% 36.6% 19.8% 14.7% 40.4% 25.9% 3.6% Logistic Regression 29.2% 50.5% 47.6% 31.0% 14.0% 30.9% 21.8% 3.1%
Bayesian 25.0% 28.9% 29.0% 12.2% 4.7% 11.1% 3.6% 0.0%
DTOPS 31.0% 74.0% 37.0% 15.0% 9.0% 76.0% 63.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.4% 39.7% 41.3% 26.9% 18.1% 17.1% 8.4% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 19.3% 43.7% 34.5% 20.6% 13.5% 29.9% 26.1% 13.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.7% 42.7% 36.2% 22.1% 14.6% 26.6% 21.7% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 16.6% 50.4% 36.8% 26.6% 25.3% 45.7% 47.3% 33.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.2% 56.3% 36.6% 20.4% 11.5% 53.5% 37.2% 15.9% Logistic Regression 22.4% 47.7% 41.8% 26.8% 11.4% 28.5% 24.0% 6.9%
Bayesian 18.8% 33.2% 24.9% 8.4% 3.8% 15.4% 7.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 73.0% 32.0% 14.0% 5.0% 90.0% 66.0% 30.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.3% 35.9% 31.3% 23.8% 14.0% 26.8% 15.3% 3.7% SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 33.5% 28.0% 14.7% 7.9% 22.3% 24.6% 18.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 34.1% 28.8% 16.9% 9.4% 23.4% 22.2% 15.0% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 47.6% 34.2% 22.4% 16.1% 37.1% 52.3% 43.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.6% 47.9% 29.6% 17.4% 8.5% 33.4% 37.6% 16.8% Logistic Regression 15.1% 36.7% 30.4% 16.1% 5.0% 19.7% 17.6% 12.6%
Bayesian 14.4% 16.4% 19.5% 5.5% 2.6% 10.0% 3.7% 0.2%
DTOPS 9.0% 60.0% 28.0% 11.0% 3.0% 40.0% 60.0% 30.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nigel at 09/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.2% 33.0% 25.2% 18.1% 11.2% 35.5% 24.4% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 15.5% 29.2% 25.0% 10.6% 5.3% 21.0% 24.8% 26.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.1% 30.1% 25.0% 12.5% 6.8% 24.6% 24.7% 21.4% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 39.9% 25.4% 15.8% 10.6% 28.9% 43.4% 58.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.6% 31.5% 17.1% 13.0% 6.6% 25.7% 39.7% 27.6% Logistic Regression 13.4% 29.8% 22.0% 10.0% 3.1% 21.9% 24.3% 21.5%
Bayesian 25.4% 18.0% 27.6% 6.1% 2.3% 12.1% 6.7% 0.5%
DTOPS 9.0% 30.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2.0% 16.0% 55.0% 50.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 19.3% 16.9% 8.8% 10.3% 13.7% 26.0% 13.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 15.9% 10.6% 5.2% 3.2% 10.7% 16.3% 20.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 16.8% 12.1% 6.1% 4.9% 11.4% 18.7% 19.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 20.2% 12.3% 9.3% 7.2% 12.5% 19.9% 34.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 19.6% 10.4% 5.9% 5.6% 9.3% 28.0% 31.9% Logistic Regression 6.2% 21.3% 12.9% 5.4% 2.1% 16.4% 20.9% 26.7%
Bayesian 4.2% 6.4% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3.1% 8.1% 1.2%
DTOPS 3.0% 20.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 30.0% 50.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 36.1% 27.3% 20.6% 12.3% 36.2% 38.4% 22.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 17.2% 11.7% 5.9% 3.6% 9.5% 12.6% 19.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 21.9% 15.6% 9.6% 5.7% 16.1% 19.0% 20.5% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 22.2% 12.5% 9.4% 7.5% 12.2% 16.5% 32.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 22.0% 14.1% 10.8% 6.1% 19.6% 21.7% 36.9% Logistic Regression 8.9% 26.3% 18.7% 7.9% 3.2% 14.4% 17.9% 24.0%
Bayesian 1.9% 3.0% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.8% 3.3% 3.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 51.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 38.9% 18.8% 18.5% 6.2% 26.4% 32.2% 29.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 13.6% 8.5% 4.1% 2.8% 6.5% 10.0% 18.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 19.9% 11.0% 7.7% 3.6% 11.4% 15.6% 21.2% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 21.0% 12.3% 9.2% 7.3% 12.2% 18.9% 32.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 23.9% 10.4% 9.7% 3.1% 15.2% 18.6% 35.7% Logistic Regression 5.7% 17.6% 11.1% 3.0% 1.0% 6.1% 9.0% 16.2%
Bayesian 1.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 7.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 42.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 26.0% 9.4% 7.5% 5.3% 21.7% 30.3% 27.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 12.0% 7.2% 3.8% 2.5% 5.3% 8.9% 15.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 15.4% 7.7% 4.7% 3.2% 9.4% 14.2% 18.6% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 23.7% 12.5% 9.1% 7.1% 11.9% 16.8% 33.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 18.0% 6.7% 4.7% 2.6% 11.3% 16.6% 27.6% Logistic Regression 4.8% 11.0% 6.9% 2.0% 0.5% 3.1% 4.3% 7.3%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 5.7% 7.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 31.1% 13.7% 5.9% 5.4% 15.9% 20.5% 22.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 18.6% 9.9% 4.6% 3.1% 8.7% 11.1% 16.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 21.7% 10.8% 4.9% 3.7% 10.5% 13.4% 18.1% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 33.7% 16.9% 9.5% 7.7% 15.1% 19.4% 34.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 20.5% 7.8% 3.4% 3.2% 9.9% 15.2% 29.9% Logistic Regression 5.1% 18.0% 9.3% 3.7% 1.3% 5.7% 4.9% 5.0%
Bayesian 2.0% 4.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.4% 5.3% 8.9% 10.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 10.0% 37.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 21.5% 15.9% 4.3% 2.7% 14.9% 18.2% 16.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 20.0% 9.2% 4.0% 2.9% 7.6% 11.4% 19.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 20.4% 10.8% 4.1% 2.8% 9.4% 13.1% 18.7% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 35.2% 17.7% 9.5% 7.6% 15.5% 22.0% 35.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 13.7% 8.9% 2.6% 1.3% 7.9% 9.6% 10.9% Logistic Regression 4.0% 18.2% 7.5% 2.5% 1.0% 4.9% 4.6% 5.9%
Bayesian 1.3% 6.7% 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.4% 7.7% 16.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fifteen at 09/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 13.1% 3.9% 4.8% 0.7% 7.2% 11.6% 22.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 22.6% 10.0% 4.1% 2.9% 7.2% 21.4% 27.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 20.2% 8.4% 4.2% 2.3% 7.1% 18.9% 26.1% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 35.3% 18.1% 9.4% 7.3% 13.1% 22.9% 45.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 9.0% 2.4% 2.9% 0.3% 4.1% 6.3% 16.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 21.7% 9.0% 2.6% 1.1% 5.5% 5.7% 8.1%
Bayesian 1.8% 10.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 2.9% 35.4% 29.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------