Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Sixteen intensity image current Sixteen RI diff image

 


Ophelia at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Ophelia at 09/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 5.2% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Ophelia at 09/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 8.3% 5.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Ophelia at 09/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 13.4% 9.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ophelia at 09/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.6% 3.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 13.9% 9.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.8% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ophelia at 09/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 16.7% 11.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Sixteen at 09/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 14.3% 9.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 09/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 11.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 09/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 09/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 8.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 16.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 09/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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