Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Philippe at 10/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 13.6% 9.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 11.7% 7.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.4% 6.2% 4.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 12.7% 8.5% 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 13.4% 9.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 10.5% 6.7% 3.9% 3.8% 6.1% 5.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 11.3% 7.3% 5.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 3.3% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 5.2% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 12.7% 8.1% 6.4% 3.9% 7.8% 7.2% 6.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.5% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.2% 8.7% 7.1% 4.4% 8.8% 8.3% 9.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.5% 1.3% 2.7% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 2.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 12.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.9% 9.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 14.2% 9.3% 7.9% 5.6% 9.3% 9.8% 10.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 2.4% 2.6% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 10.1% 6.4% 6.0% 3.2% 7.4% 7.8% 10.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 2.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 2.3% 2.8% 5.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 3.8% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% 3.8% 4.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 3.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 3.0% 3.5% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 8.6% 11.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1% 1.4% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 3.3% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 12.4% 8.2% 7.4% 4.7% 9.1% 11.0% 13.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 4.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.9% 5.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.1% 11.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 10.3% 14.4% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 2.6% Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.7% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 2.8% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 9.4% 13.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 4.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.9% 7.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 3.8% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.5% 3.3% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 9.0% 13.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.9% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 3.1% 5.9% 6.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 2.3% 5.4% Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 3.4% 5.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.9% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 10.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 9.3% 13.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 4.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 2.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 3.0% 3.6% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 2.3% 3.1% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 11.8% 7.8% 7.1% 4.4% 8.6% 10.1% 13.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 2.7% 4.8% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.9% Bayesian 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 2.6% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.3% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 3.1% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 7.9% 11.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 3.5% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 10/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 1.7% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.7% 3.4% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 4.0% 5.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.3% 2.6% 3.4% 5.6% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 14.0% 9.2% 7.4% 4.9% 8.5% 10.2% 13.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 4.2% 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 3.2% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.8% 3.1% Bayesian 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 5.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% 5.8% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 3.7% 4.9% 6.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2.2% 1.5% 3.1% 5.1% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 15.0% 9.8% 7.6% 5.3% 9.7% 12.6% 16.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.3% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.7% 4.4% 9.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% Bayesian 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 2.7% 3.1% 9.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.4% 4.0% 2.8% 1.9% 3.7% 4.3% 5.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 3.4% 4.0% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 15.2% 10.0% 7.9% 5.6% 9.9% 11.8% 15.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 4.6% 3.2% 1.1% 1.0% 2.8% 2.5% 11.3% Logistic Regression 2.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 8.3% 8.0% 2.8% 2.3% 5.9% 8.0% 14.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.7% 6.0% 3.5% 2.5% 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.3% 6.5% 3.3% 2.4% 5.2% 6.2% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 17.8% 11.8% 9.1% 7.0% 11.1% 13.5% 17.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 11.1% 8.0% 3.4% 2.1% 6.9% 11.0% 16.1% Logistic Regression 5.9% 10.1% 5.4% 1.3% 0.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% Bayesian 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% DTOPS 5.0% 14.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 14.0% 18.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 8.8% 5.4% 2.2% 1.8% 10.0% 9.8% 15.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 7.4% 4.7% 3.1% 2.2% 4.0% 5.2% 7.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.7% 4.9% 2.8% 2.0% 5.5% 6.3% 9.2% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 16.6% 11.1% 8.7% 6.3% 10.8% 13.8% 19.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 8.9% 5.2% 2.6% 1.4% 6.5% 6.4% 17.0% Logistic Regression 3.2% 4.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% Bayesian 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 19.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 6.5% 1.2% 2.4% 0.8% 4.3% 5.9% 20.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.3% 4.5% 3.2% 2.4% 4.3% 5.4% 6.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 7.0% 3.6% 3.0% 1.9% 4.3% 5.5% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 16.7% 11.3% 9.2% 7.0% 11.3% 14.2% 17.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 10.2% 4.6% 3.7% 1.4% 6.6% 15.4% 37.7% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.8% Bayesian 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 9.0% 25.0% 55.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3.7% 2.5% 18.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 4.4% 6.4% 7.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.2% 3.7% 2.3% 1.5% 4.2% 5.4% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 14.7% 9.9% 8.1% 5.9% 10.4% 13.5% 17.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 3.3% 4.2% 25.1% Logistic Regression 2.0% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 2.6% 5.5% 6.3% Bayesian 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 32.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 10.5% 7.5% 3.1% 3.1% 5.1% 9.3% 14.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 12.1% 7.0% 4.2% 3.0% 7.3% 9.6% 9.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 11.6% 7.1% 3.9% 3.0% 6.7% 9.5% 11.1% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.1% 11.7% 9.4% 7.4% 11.5% 14.2% 16.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 6.7% 4.2% 2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 5.1% 11.3% Logistic Regression 5.6% 14.3% 7.8% 3.0% 1.5% 10.1% 13.8% 12.6% Bayesian 1.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 5.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.4% 3.7% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.5% 4.7% 3.3% 2.4% 4.9% 6.7% 8.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 5.1% 3.3% 2.4% 1.6% 3.4% 4.8% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 15.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.6% 11.2% 13.9% 17.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 3.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% 13.2% Logistic Regression 2.4% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3.2% 5.9% 8.6% Bayesian 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 13.6% 6.6% 5.2% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 16.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.3% 4.1% 3.4% 2.3% 4.6% 6.0% 8.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 8.1% 4.7% 3.8% 2.7% 4.9% 5.7% 10.1% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 13.9% 9.4% 8.2% 6.1% 10.4% 12.7% 16.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 7.3% 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 10.7% Logistic Regression 1.7% 4.7% 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 3.4% 5.1% 7.9% Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 13.2% 4.9% 3.6% 4.6% 11.9% 6.6% 24.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.1% 4.6% 3.5% 2.5% 4.7% 6.8% 7.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 8.6% 4.6% 3.4% 3.0% 6.4% 6.7% 11.9% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 16.2% 11.0% 9.1% 7.1% 11.5% 14.6% 18.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 8.6% 3.4% 2.3% 2.3% 6.4% 3.8% 14.3% Logistic Regression 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% Bayesian 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 8.0% 4.2% 5.4% 2.9% 6.5% 4.4% 12.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.7% 4.3% 3.7% 2.6% 5.2% 6.5% 6.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.0% 4.2% 4.1% 2.6% 5.5% 5.9% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 15.7% 10.7% 9.1% 7.1% 11.1% 12.7% 15.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 6.0% 3.1% 3.2% 1.4% 4.2% 2.7% 9.1% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.7% 4.4% 6.5% 5.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 12.8% 7.5% 3.8% 4.0% 6.7% 11.7% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.0% 4.6% 6.3% 8.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 7.3% 4.6% 3.2% 2.4% 5.1% 7.6% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.8% 9.2% 7.8% 5.5% 10.0% 12.6% 16.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 7.4% 4.2% 2.4% 2.0% 3.8% 6.3% 6.8% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3.4% 5.3% 7.3% Bayesian 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 15.5% 8.9% 4.1% 0.6% 9.8% 17.0% 15.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 7.2% 4.8% 3.9% 2.6% 5.6% 8.8% 8.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 9.3% 5.8% 3.9% 2.0% 6.6% 10.8% 10.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.0% 11.5% 9.4% 7.1% 11.5% 14.1% 17.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 9.2% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 5.4% 8.5% 8.5% Logistic Regression 2.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.2% 0.6% 4.5% 6.3% 6.3% Bayesian 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 6.1% 2.8% DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 10.7% 5.5% 2.1% 1.5% 5.9% 11.4% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 2.5% 2.2% 7.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 7.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 2.9% 4.6% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 6.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.7% 3.4% 5.7% 5.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.6% 1.9% 2.6% 0.8% 6.5% 4.9% 4.3% Bayesian 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 3.8% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 4.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 6.8% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 6.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 2.3% 6.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.7% 3.4% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 4.6% Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% 3.7% 4.2% 6.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% 4.0% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 11.4% 7.4% 6.8% 4.0% 8.5% 9.7% 13.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 2.6% 2.9% 6.6% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.2% 3.5% 3.4% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 14.8% 9.9% 8.6% 6.6% 9.9% 9.8% 11.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.1% 2.0% 3.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.4% 6.7% 6.6% 4.0% 8.0% 7.5% 9.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 8.0% 3.6% 1.7% 0.7% 4.6% 6.5% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 5.0% 3.1% 2.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.9% 8.5% 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% 7.8% 9.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 5.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 2.3% 3.2% 3.3% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% Bayesian 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 17.0% 11.4% 6.9% 3.9% 8.7% 8.7% 11.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.2% 3.6% 3.1% 2.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 8.9% 5.5% 4.0% 2.6% 5.3% 5.1% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 14.6% 9.6% 8.1% 5.7% 9.5% 9.5% 11.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 10.0% 6.7% 3.9% 1.9% 4.8% 4.8% 7.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% Bayesian 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 14.9% 11.1% 5.0% 1.8% 9.4% 12.9% 15.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 6.1% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 8.2% 5.4% 3.5% 2.0% 5.4% 6.2% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 14.6% 9.6% 8.2% 5.8% 9.8% 10.0% 11.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 8.4% 6.0% 2.5% 0.9% 5.2% 6.4% 8.9% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% Bayesian 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 12.2% 6.8% 6.5% 1.8% 16.2% 6.1% 17.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 8.8% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% 5.5% 5.9% 6.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 9.6% 5.3% 4.4% 2.4% 8.1% 5.9% 9.1% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 16.8% 11.2% 9.0% 6.7% 11.1% 12.7% 14.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 9.1% 5.9% 4.2% 1.4% 8.6% 3.5% 9.5% Logistic Regression 2.7% 7.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.4% Bayesian 2.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 20.8% 19.3% 4.1% 6.2% 23.9% 22.4% 16.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 11.5% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% 7.7% 8.2% 9.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 13.8% 9.2% 4.1% 3.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.5% 11.8% 9.3% 7.1% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 13.4% 11.6% 3.0% 3.6% 12.4% 11.2% 8.5% Logistic Regression 3.7% 10.0% 4.0% 3.1% 1.9% 10.1% 10.2% 11.8% Bayesian 4.3% 7.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Philippe at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 14.6% 8.9% 3.2% 0.5% 6.9% 8.9% 21.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.0% 4.3% 2.9% 1.8% 4.7% 6.9% 9.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 9.6% 5.4% 2.9% 1.5% 5.2% 7.3% 12.7% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 15.0% 9.9% 7.7% 5.2% 10.3% 13.2% 16.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 9.3% 5.9% 2.6% 0.7% 3.9% 4.4% 11.3% Logistic Regression 1.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 2.4% 5.3% 10.0% Bayesian 2.7% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 09/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 37.3% 23.5% 10.6% 4.0% 15.4% 29.4% 29.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 12.2% 7.8% 4.7% 2.9% 7.1% 7.8% 8.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 18.4% 11.7% 6.1% 3.1% 9.1% 13.1% 13.4% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 21.1% 12.4% 9.4% 7.2% 11.9% 13.7% 15.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 22.1% 13.7% 6.3% 2.0% 8.2% 15.2% 15.3% Logistic Regression 4.1% 11.4% 6.6% 4.3% 1.3% 6.1% 5.5% 6.6% Bayesian 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3.2% 4.1% 2.3% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 09/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 17.3% 6.8% 6.7% 1.7% 8.4% 21.3% 35.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 16.1% 9.0% 4.8% 3.0% 8.3% 9.3% 11.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 16.4% 8.4% 5.3% 2.6% 8.3% 12.3% 17.4% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 18.9% 12.3% 9.4% 7.2% 12.0% 14.5% 17.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 9.6% 3.9% 3.8% 0.8% 4.2% 10.6% 18.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 16.9% 9.6% 4.6% 1.6% 9.3% 10.5% 15.5% Bayesian 2.6% 12.5% 5.2% 0.5% 0.2% 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------