Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eighteen intensity image current Eighteen RI diff image

 


Rina at 10/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 8.2% 5.3% 3.5% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 10/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.2% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 2.7% 2.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 2.0% 1.4% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.9% 11.7% 7.8% 6.7% 4.0% 7.8% 5.8% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 10/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.5% 5.0% 3.6% 5.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 10/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.8% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% 3.6% 5.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 10/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.6% 5.1% 4.0% 0.0% 6.1% 4.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 6.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 8.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 9.1% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Rina at 09/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 14.3% 9.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 4.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 3.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eighteen at 09/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 11.4% 7.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------