Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twenty-One intensity image current Twenty-One RI diff image

 


Twentyone at 10/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 3.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.8% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 24.9% 10.4% 4.9% 1.2% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 19.4% 8.4% 3.6% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.2% 29.2% 12.8% 7.9% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 2.7% Logistic Regression 3.7% 30.0% 13.7% 6.0% 3.2% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.8% 15.4% 4.8% 0.6% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twentyone at 10/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 8.3% 1.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.9% 5.3% 13.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 24.8% 9.9% 5.4% 2.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 20.7% 7.8% 4.4% 1.5% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 28.5% 12.8% 7.9% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 4.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 2.6% 6.9% Logistic Regression 4.4% 34.0% 15.2% 7.8% 5.8% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.5% 12.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Twenty-One at 10/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.1% 23.8% 7.9% 5.6% 1.0% 14.1% 23.7% 39.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 15.3% 6.3% 3.9% 1.8% 6.4% 14.0% 43.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 17.4% 6.7% 4.3% 1.6% 8.3% 16.4% 42.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 15.6% 10.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 12.4% 3.9% 2.8% 0.5% 7.0% 11.8% 20.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 24.2% 8.1% 5.8% 5.4% 18.6% 28.5% 58.2%
Bayesian 0.8% 6.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 71.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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