Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Adrian at 07/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 07/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 07/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 07/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                       Adrian at 07/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 07/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 29 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 07/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 39 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.8% 3.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 13.9% 12.3% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 4.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 7.9% 5.9% 4.5% 3.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 7.0% 4.8% 3.4% 2.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 19.1% 15.5% 13.0% 9.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.8% 3.9% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.4% 19.5% 6.0% 3.6% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 8.2% 6.1% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 11.0% 6.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 19.8% 16.2% 13.6% 10.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.2% 12.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.0% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.8% 27.0% 11.0% 7.8% 5.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 10.7% 7.2% 5.5% 3.9% 5.1% 3.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 14.8% 8.1% 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.0% 21.7% 17.6% 15.0% 11.1% 15.2% 9.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.9% 25.5% 13.0% 10.4% 7.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 9.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 24.0% 15.0% 13.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.6% 60.1% 34.8% 23.3% 22.6% 16.5% 0.7% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 18.8% 10.0% 7.7% 4.5% 6.3% 3.8% 1.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.6% 29.1% 16.2% 11.5% 9.0% 8.8% 3.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 14.8% 24.4% 19.1% 16.4% 12.0% 17.6% 11.3% 2.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 22.8% 45.0% 26.9% 18.6% 15.3% 9.7% 0.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 8.6% 26.0% 9.4% 5.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 2.5% 5.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 21.0% 30.0% 19.0% 14.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.2% 56.9% 35.5% 21.5% 11.3% 8.0% 3.5% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 20.8% 28.9% 14.5% 10.8% 5.7% 8.1% 4.3% 1.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.4% 35.8% 19.7% 13.5% 7.0% 8.0% 4.1% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 26.8% 37.1% 23.7% 18.6% 13.1% 20.3% 12.5% 3.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.6% 49.4% 32.7% 21.7% 12.6% 7.0% 2.2% 0.3% Logistic Regression 19.1% 34.0% 12.6% 9.6% 3.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian 16.6% 15.5% 7.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 32.0% 42.0% 30.0% 22.0% 14.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 55.3% 70.0% 50.8% 46.7% 41.8% 24.4% 7.6% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 34.4% 47.9% 30.4% 23.3% 10.0% 14.1% 5.1% 1.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 39.6% 53.4% 35.4% 29.1% 17.9% 16.7% 5.7% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 34.3% 46.6% 32.3% 23.1% 13.9% 22.5% 14.4% 5.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 48.1% 63.0% 43.4% 32.8% 25.4% 22.2% 5.3% 0.4% Logistic Regression 42.3% 65.8% 38.5% 33.4% 11.4% 14.9% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian 26.7% 31.3% 20.3% 13.4% 4.7% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 41.0% 56.0% 36.0% 19.0% 9.0% 20.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.5% 59.6% 42.5% 25.8% 19.3% 32.4% 10.5% 6.0% SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 30.6% 17.9% 11.7% 5.6% 11.1% 6.3% 2.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.2% 37.8% 24.0% 15.2% 9.0% 16.4% 7.3% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 20.2% 46.5% 33.7% 22.4% 13.1% 25.4% 16.8% 6.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 31.7% 59.8% 41.7% 26.9% 17.1% 36.2% 15.7% 3.5% Logistic Regression 12.4% 34.0% 14.1% 9.9% 2.7% 5.3% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian 9.8% 11.2% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS 41.0% 60.0% 41.0% 28.0% 15.0% 40.0% 21.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.0% 41.7% 31.9% 16.9% 5.5% 12.6% 20.7% 14.4% SHIPS Consensus 18.6% 47.4% 31.8% 22.3% 6.6% 19.5% 12.5% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.9% 45.9% 31.8% 20.9% 6.3% 17.8% 14.6% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 18.7% 52.6% 36.2% 23.2% 13.1% 28.9% 29.0% 9.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.0% 50.8% 42.9% 22.9% 9.2% 34.8% 28.3% 11.2% Logistic Regression 22.5% 59.8% 36.3% 28.7% 6.1% 24.5% 7.6% 3.6% Bayesian 14.5% 29.7% 22.9% 15.1% 0.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0% DTOPS 34.0% 60.0% 54.0% 29.0% 13.0% 57.0% 36.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Adrian at 06/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.1% 43.4% 26.7% 13.2% 11.1% 23.8% 34.3% 21.5% SHIPS Consensus 32.3% 61.4% 47.7% 38.0% 15.4% 30.5% 16.6% 9.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.9% 56.9% 42.4% 31.7% 14.3% 28.8% 21.0% 12.2% SHIPS-RII 22.8% 53.4% 36.8% 24.5% 13.0% 27.1% 32.9% 18.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 22.5% 53.7% 45.8% 31.6% 17.5% 42.4% 42.1% 22.2% Logistic Regression 46.0% 75.1% 60.8% 51.5% 19.0% 43.7% 13.9% 8.5% Bayesian 28.0% 55.8% 45.5% 37.9% 14.2% 20.8% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS 30.0% 64.0% 65.0% 50.0% 24.0% 61.0% 50.0% 23.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------