Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Beatriz at 07/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.0% 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 6.2% 4.7% 2.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.8% 4.4% 3.5% 2.1% 4.7% 3.6% 2.0% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 19.4% 15.8% 13.0% 8.7% 18.3% 14.1% 7.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 07/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 3.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% 2.5% 4.3% 3.4% 1.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 1.9% 3.4% 2.7% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 16.3% 12.7% 9.8% 7.4% 12.7% 10.3% 5.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 07/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 4.9% 1.6% 2.6% 3.0% 0.5% 3.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.7% 4.7% 3.8% 2.7% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 6.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 16.9% 13.5% 11.2% 7.8% 12.3% 8.5% 4.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 2.4% 0.8% 4.8% 6.0% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 06/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.7% 11.8% 7.5% 7.9% 14.2% 5.5% 6.9% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 20.1% 20.4% 9.7% 7.5% 5.2% 7.8% 4.9% 2.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.7% 18.2% 9.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 5.3% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 46.3% 35.7% 20.3% 18.0% 12.3% 19.6% 13.3% 6.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.3% 8.9% 9.2% 12.9% 15.1% 2.7% 3.4% 1.2% Logistic Regression 12.8% 18.9% 6.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian 1.3% 6.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 18.0% 6.0% 11.0% 18.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 06/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.6% 32.8% 22.1% 18.2% 27.5% 23.8% 22.5% 7.7% SHIPS Consensus 21.0% 38.7% 23.4% 16.9% 8.4% 16.5% 10.4% 3.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.6% 37.2% 23.0% 17.2% 13.1% 18.3% 13.4% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 38.0% 60.8% 43.0% 33.5% 17.1% 31.8% 20.5% 9.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 21.3% 23.9% 20.5% 19.1% 21.7% 12.4% 11.7% 3.8% Logistic Regression 16.5% 33.9% 16.4% 10.3% 6.0% 10.4% 8.8% 1.2% Bayesian 8.4% 21.5% 10.7% 6.8% 2.1% 7.2% 2.0% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 15.0% 19.0% 20.0% 16.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 06/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.0% 18.3% 8.4% 11.6% 12.8% 10.8% 10.3% 9.6% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 20.5% 13.1% 8.4% 5.0% 11.2% 8.4% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 20.0% 11.9% 9.2% 6.9% 11.0% 8.8% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 16.5% 35.7% 28.1% 20.4% 12.8% 26.5% 19.0% 12.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 24.6% 16.7% 13.8% 11.9% 6.9% 6.6% 4.8% Logistic Regression 4.1% 15.0% 6.6% 3.1% 1.4% 5.4% 4.4% 1.1% Bayesian 3.6% 11.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.7% 1.6% 1.8% 0.4% DTOPS 16.0% 31.0% 25.0% 16.0% 11.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Beatriz at 06/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.8% 34.6% 11.7% 7.8% 7.5% 13.1% 15.3% 27.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 21.6% 11.4% 7.8% 4.4% 10.9% 13.6% 14.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 24.8% 11.5% 7.8% 5.2% 11.4% 14.0% 17.3% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 33.9% 20.4% 17.2% 11.8% 23.3% 21.4% 32.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 38.3% 16.8% 9.4% 7.2% 9.5% 10.6% 14.7% Logistic Regression 2.7% 14.3% 5.4% 2.3% 1.0% 7.7% 18.7% 4.7% Bayesian 1.3% 16.7% 8.5% 3.9% 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 5.3% DTOPS 9.0% 42.0% 22.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.2% 48.8% 37.2% 19.2% 12.6% 19.1% 19.7% 24.7% SHIPS Consensus 12.0% 47.8% 29.4% 18.2% 6.4% 17.4% 18.8% 15.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 48.0% 31.3% 18.4% 7.9% 17.8% 19.0% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 45.4% 27.8% 18.4% 12.7% 24.8% 25.3% 34.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.1% 52.9% 39.1% 23.1% 14.8% 23.0% 20.8% 17.8% Logistic Regression 14.1% 45.1% 20.7% 11.3% 5.2% 21.7% 26.6% 6.8% Bayesian 7.3% 53.1% 39.6% 24.9% 1.1% 5.6% 4.5% 4.9% DTOPS 10.0% 57.0% 41.0% 27.0% 17.0% 27.0% 22.0% 11.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.0% 55.9% 39.1% 18.6% 17.3% 35.1% 19.4% 24.8% SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 57.4% 39.0% 24.9% 7.0% 35.9% 32.9% 24.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.4% 57.0% 39.0% 23.3% 9.5% 35.7% 29.5% 24.4% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 49.1% 31.5% 18.8% 0.0% 26.3% 27.0% 48.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.5% 45.9% 29.5% 15.3% 12.1% 31.5% 18.2% 16.4% Logistic Regression 22.5% 66.2% 42.7% 28.5% 13.6% 38.4% 42.9% 14.1% Bayesian 10.5% 56.8% 42.8% 27.4% 7.3% 43.1% 28.9% 11.0% DTOPS 5.0% 36.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 28.0% 17.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 29.7% 37.8% 13.6% 6.2% 28.7% 18.1% 31.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 46.4% 29.6% 17.0% 4.1% 34.9% 35.3% 28.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 42.2% 31.6% 16.0% 4.6% 33.3% 30.9% 29.1% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 37.6% 24.7% 18.2% 0.0% 25.4% 23.5% 44.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 26.3% 22.9% 10.3% 5.6% 28.8% 19.5% 29.4% Logistic Regression 9.8% 51.5% 27.9% 16.1% 8.6% 40.4% 45.7% 18.2% Bayesian 2.8% 50.2% 36.3% 16.5% 3.6% 38.9% 36.6% 22.0% DTOPS 3.0% 23.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 29.0% 21.0% 27.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.0% 39.4% 22.8% 18.1% 14.9% 35.7% 33.7% 43.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 37.8% 23.4% 7.0% 2.2% 22.8% 33.0% 22.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 38.2% 23.2% 9.8% 5.4% 26.0% 33.1% 28.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 39.2% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 31.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 30.2% 14.4% 11.5% 8.9% 25.8% 26.3% 30.3% Logistic Regression 4.1% 35.7% 17.8% 8.6% 3.9% 36.0% 63.6% 33.0% Bayesian 1.2% 38.5% 26.6% 12.5% 2.8% 5.5% 4.0% 35.8% DTOPS 2.0% 21.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 16.0% 19.0% 17.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------