Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Calvin at 07/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 71 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 64 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 50 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 46 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 39 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 33 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 13 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 20 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 21 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 31 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 54 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 56 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 54 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 66 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 65 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 5.8% 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 77 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 6.0% 4.7% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 4.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 17.2% 18.1% 14.2% 9.7% 4.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.6% 3.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 22.7% 22.7% 17.2% 11.9% 4.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.5% 6.8% 4.1% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 32.7% 22.7% 16.0% 12.8% 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 28.4% 18.7% 13.0% 9.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 27.9% 23.1% 19.3% 17.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 38.2% 25.9% 13.5% 7.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 38.4% 40.5% 27.6% 20.5% 9.7% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian 31.8% 4.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 61.0% 45.0% 23.0% 14.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.4% 49.9% 21.7% 15.3% 18.1% 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 33.5% 35.2% 21.8% 17.7% 9.1% 9.4% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 33.2% 38.8% 21.8% 17.0% 11.3% 8.1% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 31.4% 30.5% 20.5% 18.2% 13.3% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 44.7% 52.4% 30.3% 20.1% 17.0% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 42.6% 55.5% 36.9% 30.2% 12.9% 9.5% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian 26.5% 19.5% 8.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 57.0% 55.0% 39.0% 25.0% 16.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.4% 48.0% 27.8% 19.3% 15.8% 15.4% 5.1% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 26.9% 13.7% 10.8% 6.2% 8.5% 4.9% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 32.1% 17.2% 12.9% 8.6% 10.2% 4.9% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 20.2% 29.1% 20.4% 18.0% 13.0% 19.7% 13.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 31.2% 55.5% 37.9% 29.1% 22.4% 16.2% 3.5% 0.6% Logistic Regression 12.7% 39.6% 17.5% 13.2% 5.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.8% Bayesian 2.5% 12.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 43.0% 63.0% 48.0% 39.0% 29.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.8% 40.8% 25.0% 19.9% 16.1% 22.5% 5.7% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 23.1% 10.8% 8.3% 5.0% 8.3% 5.2% 0.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 27.5% 14.3% 11.2% 7.7% 11.8% 5.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 23.5% 19.0% 16.5% 11.9% 19.0% 13.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.4% 51.9% 36.5% 28.9% 22.0% 25.7% 4.3% 1.0% Logistic Regression 10.6% 31.3% 10.1% 7.0% 2.8% 5.4% 2.3% 1.2% Bayesian 2.0% 14.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 32.0% 63.0% 48.0% 38.0% 28.0% 29.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.2% 48.4% 33.1% 19.3% 15.5% 33.8% 21.1% 10.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 16.0% 8.6% 6.8% 4.5% 8.1% 5.7% 2.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 24.1% 14.7% 9.8% 7.2% 14.5% 9.5% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 23.2% 19.3% 16.8% 12.0% 19.8% 14.1% 5.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.6% 45.7% 32.5% 23.1% 17.7% 28.9% 13.0% 5.1% Logistic Regression 3.6% 18.1% 5.3% 3.0% 1.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.8% Bayesian 0.7% 6.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 43.0% 32.0% 27.0% 20.0% 24.0% 5.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.0% 55.7% 35.6% 23.8% 16.6% 33.9% 37.2% 7.7% SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 39.9% 20.1% 13.8% 7.6% 15.7% 7.6% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.5% 43.8% 23.9% 16.3% 9.8% 20.2% 15.0% 5.0% SHIPS-RII 20.1% 38.4% 28.3% 21.5% 13.6% 22.7% 15.6% 7.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 27.0% 53.3% 34.8% 25.9% 17.8% 28.9% 22.1% 3.8% Logistic Regression 20.1% 45.5% 19.6% 14.4% 5.2% 13.1% 5.7% 5.5% Bayesian 10.9% 35.7% 12.4% 5.6% 4.0% 11.1% 1.6% 0.0% DTOPS 35.0% 51.0% 34.0% 28.0% 19.0% 24.0% 7.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.8% 50.0% 31.9% 24.6% 9.7% 36.5% 38.6% 19.0% SHIPS Consensus 17.2% 38.6% 20.2% 13.8% 6.5% 15.9% 9.4% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.5% 41.4% 23.1% 16.5% 7.3% 21.0% 16.6% 9.5% SHIPS-RII 21.7% 40.3% 31.1% 22.6% 13.1% 25.5% 16.7% 7.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.9% 50.0% 37.9% 27.8% 13.8% 40.7% 25.8% 10.0% Logistic Regression 17.1% 40.8% 17.8% 13.2% 3.7% 13.1% 10.0% 11.6% Bayesian 12.8% 34.7% 11.8% 5.8% 2.7% 9.1% 1.4% 0.0% DTOPS 31.0% 50.0% 44.0% 31.0% 18.0% 45.0% 13.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.2% 55.9% 38.3% 18.1% 7.6% 28.6% 39.5% 26.3% SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 44.7% 19.7% 13.8% 7.1% 21.0% 14.0% 10.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.5% 47.4% 24.3% 14.9% 7.1% 22.9% 20.3% 14.1% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 23.2% 18.7% 16.0% 10.6% 22.1% 18.2% 9.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.6% 52.9% 33.6% 17.0% 7.8% 29.8% 33.2% 17.1% Logistic Regression 19.6% 56.5% 27.3% 19.5% 5.6% 22.5% 17.7% 21.0% Bayesian 13.9% 54.3% 13.1% 6.0% 5.0% 18.5% 6.1% 0.0% DTOPS 23.0% 50.0% 29.0% 16.0% 8.0% 31.0% 27.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Calvin at 07/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 19.5% 10.1% 5.4% 2.4% 9.1% 29.1% 36.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 23.4% 9.2% 6.2% 3.4% 12.1% 10.5% 9.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 22.4% 9.4% 5.9% 3.1% 11.3% 15.1% 16.4% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 17.3% 14.1% 11.2% 7.2% 15.8% 14.3% 8.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 26.2% 12.5% 5.7% 2.7% 11.0% 23.0% 24.1% Logistic Regression 5.6% 36.4% 11.5% 6.8% 2.4% 13.5% 13.9% 20.6% Bayesian 1.1% 16.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 6.9% 3.2% 0.1% DTOPS 7.0% 33.0% 15.0% 6.0% 3.0% 13.0% 17.0% 12.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 07/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.2% 46.4% 19.3% 7.9% 7.6% 22.1% 30.1% 32.8% SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 31.3% 12.8% 8.9% 1.9% 14.5% 11.9% 10.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 35.1% 14.4% 8.6% 3.3% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 20.4% 15.2% 11.7% 0.0% 16.4% 15.7% 9.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 37.2% 16.1% 8.4% 6.8% 21.5% 23.0% 28.9% Logistic Regression 11.3% 55.7% 20.8% 14.2% 5.5% 24.4% 18.2% 23.0% Bayesian 0.7% 17.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 28.0% 13.0% 9.0% 6.0% 21.0% 16.0% 25.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Three at 07/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 30.2% 16.7% 12.8% 5.3% 20.0% 25.5% 32.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 19.2% 7.9% 5.3% 0.7% 10.9% 10.2% 10.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 21.9% 10.1% 7.1% 1.8% 13.1% 14.0% 15.6% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 17.4% 13.3% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 14.1% 8.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 24.1% 11.3% 7.9% 3.1% 19.0% 18.2% 22.2% Logistic Regression 3.2% 32.8% 9.2% 5.6% 2.1% 15.9% 14.8% 21.0% Bayesian 0.1% 7.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.2% DTOPS 2.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 18.0% 11.0% 12.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------