Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Eight intensity image current Eight RI diff image

 


Greg at 08/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 0.7% 5.8% 0.4% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.3% 4.3% 3.4% 0.5% 4.5% 0.4% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 16.0% 13.2% 11.2% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 9.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.8% 7.1% 3.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 3.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Greg at 08/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 6.6% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 5.3% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.3% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 5.5% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.3% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.9% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 0.2% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 15.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.9% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 19.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 3.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 4.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 10.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 6.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 5.9% 3.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 5.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 2.5% 13.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.7% 6.6% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 2.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.8% 3.5% 1.3% 7.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 3.9% Logistic Regression 1.8% 6.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 2.7% 1.4% 9.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.1% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 13.6% 11.4% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 4.6% Logistic Regression 1.3% 4.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 8.7% 8.2% 5.7% 3.2% 3.3% 4.9% 19.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.1% 5.6% 4.2% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.4% 6.2% 4.5% 0.8% 4.3% 1.2% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 15.5% 13.9% 11.6% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3% 2.6% 1.6% 2.9% 9.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 18.4% 13.2% 9.3% 6.2% 6.6% 3.4% 27.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 11.2% 7.9% 5.3% 3.0% 5.8% 4.4% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 12.9% 9.2% 6.3% 3.8% 6.0% 4.1% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 18.5% 15.6% 12.9% 8.7% 16.2% 12.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 11.7% 8.1% 6.6% 4.6% 3.8% 2.2% 13.9% Logistic Regression 4.5% 14.6% 8.2% 3.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 24.1% 12.6% 6.8% 7.2% 11.3% 5.2% 14.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 21.0% 14.6% 9.1% 4.6% 7.7% 5.0% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 21.1% 13.5% 8.1% 5.1% 8.4% 4.9% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 11.0% 20.9% 17.1% 14.4% 9.9% 19.2% 14.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 14.5% 8.3% 5.9% 5.1% 6.6% 3.6% 7.2% Logistic Regression 14.3% 41.5% 26.6% 12.9% 3.8% 4.0% 0.2% 1.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 4.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 2.9% 3.9% 9.6% SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 17.8% 12.6% 8.3% 3.7% 8.1% 5.0% 3.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 14.4% 9.9% 6.6% 3.0% 6.7% 4.7% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 18.2% 15.9% 13.6% 9.0% 18.3% 15.0% 8.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 4.7% 2.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 4.8% Logistic Regression 10.6% 34.9% 21.8% 11.3% 2.1% 5.9% 0.1% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 26.0% 16.6% 9.8% 7.6% 18.4% 4.2% 18.8% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 20.8% 14.0% 8.9% 4.7% 8.5% 5.9% 3.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 22.1% 14.6% 9.1% 5.4% 11.0% 5.4% 7.5% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 22.7% 18.5% 15.8% 10.9% 20.9% 17.3% 9.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 19.5% 12.8% 8.4% 6.3% 11.2% 3.6% 9.9% Logistic Regression 10.9% 38.4% 23.4% 10.8% 3.1% 4.7% 0.4% 1.9%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 13.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 22.1% 12.3% 7.9% 3.8% 18.8% 6.9% 22.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 13.2% 8.7% 5.5% 3.2% 6.2% 0.1% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 15.4% 9.5% 6.0% 3.3% 9.3% 1.7% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 17.6% 14.9% 12.5% 8.2% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.4% 13.5% 7.6% 5.4% 2.9% 10.4% 4.4% 11.7% Logistic Regression 3.7% 21.5% 11.1% 3.9% 1.3% 2.1% 0.2% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 14.5% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 10.7% 6.3% 24.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 7.1% 5.2% 3.7% 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 3.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 9.0% 4.9% 3.2% 0.4% 6.4% 1.6% 8.4% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 14.2% 12.6% 10.2% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 8.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 9.2% 3.2% 1.9% 1.2% 5.8% 4.1% 12.8% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Greg at 08/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 6.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.1% 5.6% 4.8% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.9% 4.6% 3.5% 0.2% 5.3% 4.7% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 16.1% 14.7% 12.5% 0.0% 16.4% 14.1% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 6.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 8.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 08/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 8.2% 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 5.1% 7.3% 19.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.8% 6.2% 4.7% 0.5% 5.8% 4.7% 3.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.8% 5.0% 3.1% 0.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 16.6% 15.0% 12.7% 0.0% 16.6% 13.7% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 7.1% 3.0% 1.6% 1.1% 3.5% 5.6% 10.7% Logistic Regression 1.4% 9.4% 3.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 2.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 08/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 16.7% 6.3% 1.0% 1.4% 5.7% 14.5% 31.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.7% 4.5% 0.1% 5.9% 5.5% 5.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 9.7% 5.8% 3.6% 0.4% 5.9% 7.7% 12.1% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 17.7% 15.7% 13.2% 0.0% 17.1% 14.5% 9.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 11.3% 4.6% 1.5% 1.7% 4.8% 10.2% 18.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.9% 8.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------