Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Jova at 09/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 4 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 2 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 40 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 29 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.3% 6.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 16.8% 9.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.6% 7.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 49.6% 28.3% 6.9% 7.3% 7.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 66.5% 41.8% 15.9% 9.4% 12.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 53.0% 27.5% 13.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 56.4% 31.0% 13.9% 7.9% 7.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 64.1% 28.2% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 66.2% 40.4% 19.4% 9.7% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 65.6% 53.5% 20.6% 22.0% 15.8% 4.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 29.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 66.0% 39.0% 23.0% 10.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 59.4% 71.1% 42.8% 22.1% 29.2% 11.5% 1.9% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 75.9% 57.3% 48.9% 40.5% 28.0% 14.9% 2.5% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 71.8% 60.8% 47.3% 35.8% 28.3% 14.0% 2.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 80.1% 67.0% 48.4% 42.3% 34.2% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 76.7% 79.5% 64.9% 47.5% 37.6% 16.7% 0.9% 0.0% Logistic Regression 74.2% 77.5% 51.0% 50.6% 36.6% 20.3% 7.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 73.5% 27.6% 47.2% 28.4% 13.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 94.0% 88.0% 87.0% 73.0% 46.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 54.2% 74.8% 61.8% 41.0% 53.8% 45.8% 9.8% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 76.0% 81.6% 77.5% 71.6% 55.7% 43.2% 17.0% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 70.5% 79.8% 73.5% 63.9% 55.2% 43.8% 15.2% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 90.3% 98.7% 93.5% 92.9% 73.5% 65.0% 28.7% 8.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 73.1% 83.9% 78.9% 64.0% 61.9% 63.9% 11.4% 0.4% Logistic Regression 64.2% 82.8% 61.7% 60.7% 52.7% 42.1% 21.9% 1.2%
Bayesian 73.3% 63.2% 77.3% 61.1% 40.9% 22.6% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 92.0% 93.0% 96.0% 87.0% 70.0% 82.0% 13.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Jova at 09/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.4% 70.0% 48.2% 30.9% 33.4% 39.4% 15.6% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 33.8% 65.8% 60.3% 50.8% 30.9% 51.7% 34.2% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.4% 66.8% 57.3% 45.8% 31.4% 48.6% 29.5% 8.0% SHIPS-RII 55.8% 89.6% 87.9% 83.1% 63.1% 76.0% 61.1% 21.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 43.2% 78.0% 68.1% 48.4% 36.7% 63.2% 31.3% 4.8% Logistic Regression 21.4% 65.5% 34.6% 31.5% 22.6% 39.8% 31.9% 2.5%
Bayesian 24.1% 42.2% 58.5% 37.8% 6.8% 39.3% 9.5% 0.2%
DTOPS 66.0% 86.0% 88.0% 66.0% 40.0% 87.0% 47.0% 2.0%
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Jova at 09/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.0% 67.3% 50.3% 20.6% 23.7% 43.3% 35.2% 9.6% SHIPS Consensus 41.8% 72.8% 66.0% 55.6% 32.1% 54.5% 40.0% 19.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 35.8% 71.3% 62.0% 46.8% 30.0% 51.6% 38.8% 16.7% SHIPS-RII 50.0% 88.4% 86.1% 78.5% 51.7% 89.0% 72.1% 51.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 35.0% 73.1% 63.1% 40.3% 30.3% 62.1% 44.1% 6.3% Logistic Regression 20.9% 59.8% 32.1% 26.1% 20.3% 34.5% 40.0% 5.9%
Bayesian 54.5% 70.1% 79.8% 62.3% 24.3% 39.9% 8.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 52.0% 79.0% 76.0% 60.0% 37.0% 81.0% 53.0% 3.0%
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Jova at 09/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 30.6% 14.9% 4.2% 7.2% 22.8% 15.1% 20.1% SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 36.0% 27.3% 17.2% 8.2% 30.4% 39.2% 21.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.5% 34.6% 24.2% 13.9% 7.9% 28.5% 33.1% 21.2% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 53.2% 42.8% 34.0% 17.7% 60.3% 68.4% 56.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.3% 47.8% 33.4% 23.6% 15.6% 42.9% 38.5% 21.0% Logistic Regression 5.3% 30.8% 14.7% 8.8% 5.0% 18.4% 38.9% 8.0%
Bayesian 22.5% 24.0% 24.6% 8.7% 1.8% 12.6% 10.3% 0.8%
DTOPS 32.0% 65.0% 52.0% 43.0% 24.0% 63.0% 62.0% 22.0%
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Eleven at 09/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 41.0% 20.0% 10.0% 4.2% 22.3% 6.1% 25.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 35.8% 20.5% 12.3% 7.6% 32.7% 46.3% 26.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 37.0% 20.3% 11.7% 6.8% 30.0% 36.2% 26.1% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 45.1% 28.8% 18.5% 12.6% 41.6% 61.8% 59.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 42.0% 20.0% 12.0% 5.6% 35.6% 26.5% 41.4% Logistic Regression 5.0% 42.5% 19.2% 13.3% 9.0% 31.3% 52.3% 14.1%
Bayesian 0.9% 19.7% 13.4% 5.0% 1.4% 25.1% 24.9% 5.3%
DTOPS 9.0% 43.0% 23.0% 15.0% 8.0% 39.0% 48.0% 59.0%
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Eleven at 09/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.6% 43.6% 17.7% 7.5% 5.7% 18.1% 28.0% 34.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 26.8% 14.4% 9.1% 1.5% 20.1% 41.3% 31.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 31.0% 15.2% 8.7% 2.6% 19.5% 38.0% 32.3% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 32.4% 19.8% 16.4% 0.0% 26.8% 56.9% 61.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 36.8% 13.3% 6.2% 4.3% 25.0% 30.0% 52.6% Logistic Regression 3.5% 33.8% 13.6% 7.8% 4.5% 23.8% 53.9% 23.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 14.2% 9.8% 3.2% 0.2% 9.6% 13.2% 11.1%
DTOPS 4.0% 30.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 32.0% 32.0% 71.0%
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Eleven at 09/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 19.0% 10.6% 1.8% 3.2% 9.0% 36.8% 47.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 23.8% 16.0% 9.5% 1.0% 17.0% 34.6% 32.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 22.5% 14.6% 7.5% 1.5% 15.0% 35.1% 36.1% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 26.7% 19.9% 16.9% 0.0% 25.7% 48.5% 60.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 21.0% 9.8% 3.4% 3.1% 15.0% 36.9% 58.4% Logistic Regression 2.4% 20.0% 8.1% 4.1% 2.2% 16.3% 44.6% 23.8%
Bayesian 2.3% 24.6% 20.0% 7.4% 0.9% 9.0% 10.8% 12.3%
DTOPS 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 21.0% 37.0% 69.0%
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