Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twelve intensity image current Twelve RI diff image

 


Twelve at 09/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Twelve at 09/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Twelve at 09/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Twelve at 09/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 7.2% 6.5% 4.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.3% 4.1% 0.5% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.8% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 8.3% 15.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 3.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.9% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 4.5% 3.4% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 3.8% 2.6% N/A SHIPS-RII 8.1% 15.0% 11.1% 8.5% 0.0% 12.1% 10.2% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.9% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 2.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.9% 1.5% 7.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 1.2% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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