Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Kenneth at 09/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 55 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 51 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.8% 18.1% 12.0% 4.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 8.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 10.6% 7.5% 3.9% 2.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 16.8% 13.1% 10.4% 6.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.9% 11.0% 7.5% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.7% 7.3% 4.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 19.7% 7.8% 3.3% 1.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 8.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 10.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.0% 17.3% 14.4% 11.7% 7.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 12.8% 5.9% 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 6.8% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 2.4% 2.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.9% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 3.9% 3.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.9% 3.5% 2.6% 0.2% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 13.7% 12.1% 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% 9.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kenneth at 09/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 4.6% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 10.4% 7.3% 5.4% 3.3% 6.6% 4.8% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 8.7% 5.8% 4.1% 2.4% 5.0% 4.7% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 21.7% 17.6% 14.7% 9.7% 18.6% 13.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 6.6% 4.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.8% 2.8% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.1% 4.2% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 09/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 33.8% 18.7% 8.7% 8.0% 22.8% 11.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 17.8% 12.9% 7.5% 4.1% 7.9% 5.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 21.8% 14.3% 7.7% 5.0% 11.6% 6.8% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 22.8% 18.8% 16.2% 10.6% 20.4% 15.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 22.9% 13.8% 8.3% 7.0% 12.4% 6.6% 0.4% Logistic Regression 8.6% 29.9% 19.8% 6.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian 4.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 12.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 09/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 10.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 8.2% 3.6% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.1% 5.2% 3.5% 0.0% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 7.1% 4.6% 2.9% 0.2% 5.2% 3.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 13.4% 12.3% 9.9% 0.0% 12.6% 9.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 7.2% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 4.6% 2.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 4.7% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------