Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen RI diff image

 


Fourteen at 09/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 09/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 09/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.2% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.6% 3.9% 2.6% 0.0% 3.3% 3.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 13.9% 10.6% 8.4% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 09/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 4.3% 2.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% 4.9% 0.2% 6.1% 4.7% 3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.9% 5.7% 4.2% 0.3% 5.0% 3.8% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 17.4% 13.8% 11.1% 0.0% 15.2% 12.7% 7.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 13.9% 6.2% 3.7% 0.6% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 09/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 6.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.8% 2.8% 1.5% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 13.2% 8.0% 6.0% 0.2% 7.1% 4.7% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 11.3% 6.9% 4.8% 0.3% 6.0% 3.9% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 18.4% 14.8% 12.2% 0.0% 16.4% 12.5% 9.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.5% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 4.4% 19.1% 8.7% 5.8% 0.7% 4.9% 1.7% 2.7%
Bayesian 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 09/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 33.5% 15.0% 11.2% 3.0% 10.6% 4.5% 5.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 15.8% 9.3% 7.1% 0.5% 9.3% 6.4% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 20.2% 10.7% 8.1% 1.1% 9.6% 5.9% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 18.9% 15.6% 12.8% 0.0% 17.8% 15.3% 9.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 6.7% 26.7% 11.9% 8.4% 1.6% 9.9% 3.7% 3.5%
Bayesian 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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