Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Lidia intensity image current Lidia RI diff image

 


Lidia at 10/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 1.6% 1.0% 2.2% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 10.3% 8.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.5% 7.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 26.2% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 3.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 12.2% 11.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 20.2% 13.2% 9.9% 7.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.9% 13.0% 10.3% 7.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 52.3% 32.3% 27.2% 22.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.1% 9.1% 8.3% 5.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 7.4% 5.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 27.0% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 17.2% 11.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 26.1% 36.4% 24.1% 19.5% 14.1% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.1% 31.6% 20.9% 16.0% 11.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 45.1% 63.1% 51.7% 42.2% 38.4% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.1% 23.1% 12.3% 6.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 29.4% 35.7% 15.6% 13.8% 3.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 3.9% 10.4% 5.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 29.0% 13.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.1% 24.3% 25.5% 10.3% 8.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 35.4% 20.5% 15.5% 10.0% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.2% 32.6% 21.7% 14.2% 9.6% 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 19.4% 64.2% 45.0% 33.0% 25.1% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.0% 26.1% 19.7% 10.1% 8.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 19.9% 40.6% 15.9% 13.3% 4.7% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 28.0% 14.0% 10.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 23.0% 18.0% 17.6% 8.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 16.9% 12.1% 8.2% 5.2% 7.8% 4.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 17.8% 14.4% 12.1% 7.6% 5.9% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 39.6% 33.1% 22.5% 14.8% 22.6% 14.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 38.0% 24.5% 14.8% 9.5% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 10.9% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 50.0% 26.0% 9.0% 7.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 24.5% 14.0% 10.1% 4.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 22.8% 15.4% 12.4% 10.7% 9.4% 5.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 23.2% 15.0% 11.8% 9.2% 7.5% 4.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 17.7% 59.2% 43.9% 35.4% 31.2% 27.0% 16.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.5% 34.7% 19.0% 11.5% 5.9% 18.5% 1.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 9.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 45.0% 24.0% 13.0% 7.0% 35.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.0% 35.2% 29.2% 16.4% 12.1% 6.0% 2.7% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 24.9% 14.3% 10.2% 7.4% 9.7% 5.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 27.5% 17.9% 11.7% 8.6% 8.7% 5.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 46.8% 35.6% 24.9% 19.2% 26.2% 17.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.5% 33.6% 26.1% 16.7% 12.0% 14.0% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.6% 27.3% 7.0% 5.6% 3.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 32.0% 23.0% 17.0% 12.0% 22.0% 7.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 29.0% 13.4% 3.6% 6.0% 7.0% 4.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 15.7% 8.3% 6.9% 4.8% 8.7% 6.2% 2.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 19.0% 9.5% 6.0% 5.1% 8.2% 5.6% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 31.5% 21.3% 18.1% 13.4% 24.0% 17.9% 7.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 19.5% 9.2% 4.8% 5.0% 6.0% 5.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 14.8% 3.5% 2.6% 1.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 10.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 25.8% 10.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 15.0% 8.1% 6.9% 4.7% 8.4% 7.0% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 17.7% 8.7% 5.8% 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 28.1% 20.5% 17.9% 13.0% 23.1% 20.3% 8.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 16.4% 7.8% 4.3% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 4.5% 15.1% 3.6% 2.9% 1.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 26.7% 5.7% 1.8% 4.2% 2.3% 2.7% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 23.3% 11.5% 8.4% 5.3% 9.2% 6.5% 3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 24.1% 10.0% 6.7% 5.0% 7.4% 5.5% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 15.0% 38.2% 26.1% 18.6% 13.5% 23.5% 18.8% 9.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.8% 18.8% 6.3% 4.4% 4.6% 2.1% 3.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 9.4% 28.0% 7.8% 6.4% 2.1% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 1.7% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 25.5% 2.8% 0.9% 2.3% 1.8% 8.3% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 14.8% 7.7% 6.2% 4.3% 8.0% 7.9% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 17.4% 6.4% 4.8% 3.8% 6.4% 7.9% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 34.0% 20.6% 17.3% 12.5% 23.0% 22.7% 17.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 16.7% 3.9% 2.9% 3.1% 1.9% 5.1% 8.2% Logistic Regression 1.6% 9.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 4.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 6.0% 4.9% 3.5% 6.1% 5.2% 3.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.6% 4.6% 3.7% 2.6% 4.7% 4.0% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 20.1% 17.5% 14.7% 10.3% 18.3% 15.3% 9.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 4.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.8% 2.8% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.0% 5.6% 4.7% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.3% 4.0% 3.2% 2.3% 4.2% 3.6% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 18.3% 15.7% 12.7% 9.0% 16.6% 14.0% 8.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.9% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 8.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 6.5% 5.6% 4.8% 3.5% 5.4% 4.1% 2.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.8% 4.4% 3.6% 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 2.0% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 18.6% 16.7% 14.4% 10.4% 16.2% 12.3% 7.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 5.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.5% 37.2% 9.6% 3.1% 5.1% 3.2% 0.6% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 9.6% 6.9% 5.9% 4.4% 6.5% 4.8% 2.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 16.5% 7.6% 5.2% 4.5% 5.6% 3.7% 2.2% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 23.4% 19.8% 17.2% 12.7% 19.2% 14.2% 8.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.2% 24.6% 7.8% 5.0% 4.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.2% 5.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 12.0% 6.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 17.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 8.8% 7.0% 6.1% 4.4% 6.8% 4.8% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 10.9% 5.7% 4.6% 3.4% 5.2% 3.7% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 23.2% 20.3% 18.0% 13.1% 20.2% 14.4% 8.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 15.2% 5.9% 5.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 13.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 18.0% 4.3% 3.4% 4.7% 2.2% 2.5% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 19.3% 13.2% 9.7% 7.4% 8.1% 5.7% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 17.2% 10.3% 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 4.8% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 21.9% 46.3% 37.6% 27.9% 20.2% 24.2% 16.8% 8.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.4% 17.0% 6.6% 6.7% 5.8% 2.6% 2.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 2.9% 8.3% 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 16.2% 5.1% 3.5% 4.7% 4.8% 1.6% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 17.7% 11.3% 6.8% 4.9% 8.2% 5.7% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 17.3% 9.7% 6.0% 4.8% 7.3% 4.6% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 44.7% 32.2% 19.5% 13.5% 24.4% 17.1% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.9% 19.1% 9.0% 6.7% 5.8% 6.9% 3.3% 1.8% Logistic Regression 1.8% 7.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 22.0% 13.0% 10.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 15.7% 5.7% 4.2% 2.6% 1.8% 3.2% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 10.1% 7.0% 5.8% 4.1% 8.0% 6.1% 3.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 11.4% 6.6% 5.4% 3.7% 6.4% 5.3% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 12.2% 25.0% 20.1% 17.1% 12.0% 23.9% 18.1% 8.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 15.3% 6.3% 5.1% 3.3% 3.9% 5.6% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 15.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.6% 27.2% 11.5% 7.1% 8.4% 9.5% 3.9% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 16.2% 9.3% 6.4% 4.6% 9.1% 8.3% 3.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 18.9% 9.8% 6.5% 5.5% 9.2% 7.2% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 39.0% 26.1% 18.3% 13.0% 27.0% 24.7% 9.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 24.6% 12.2% 8.5% 7.2% 11.7% 7.9% 3.4% Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 22.0% 13.0% 10.0% 6.0% 14.0% 12.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 20.2% 8.4% 2.3% 3.3% 4.6% 5.2% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 9.5% 6.3% 5.1% 3.6% 7.4% 7.4% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 12.1% 6.8% 4.4% 3.5% 6.6% 6.8% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 22.6% 18.0% 14.9% 10.5% 22.0% 22.0% 10.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.1% 18.1% 8.2% 4.1% 3.6% 10.8% 13.1% 8.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 16.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 17.0% 21.0% 12.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 20.1% 6.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 4.6% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 9.7% 6.5% 5.3% 3.9% 7.4% 7.8% 6.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 12.3% 6.5% 4.5% 3.4% 6.0% 7.0% 5.6% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 23.8% 18.9% 15.6% 11.2% 22.1% 23.2% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 14.0% 5.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.9% 4.3% 3.8% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.3% 5.4% 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% 5.6% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.5% 4.3% 3.5% 0.1% 4.8% 4.6% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 18.0% 16.0% 13.5% 0.0% 18.6% 16.6% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 3.7% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 3.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.2% 6.5% 5.5% 3.7% 7.4% 6.6% 7.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.1% 5.0% 4.3% 3.0% 5.8% 5.5% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 22.5% 19.0% 16.3% 10.7% 21.9% 18.7% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 4.9% 2.8% 3.4% 2.6% 1.6% 3.6% 5.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 11.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.0% 5.7% 4.7% 0.1% 6.7% 6.0% 9.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.0% 4.4% 3.6% 0.1% 5.1% 4.7% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 19.6% 16.7% 13.9% 0.0% 19.9% 17.1% 23.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 3.0% 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 1.5% 7.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 5.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.0% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.1% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 14.2% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 16.0% 14.5% 14.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 2.2% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 5.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 8.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.3% 4.7% 3.7% 0.0% 5.6% 5.3% 7.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.3% 3.8% 2.8% 0.1% 4.5% 4.3% 7.6% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 15.8% 14.0% 11.1% 0.0% 16.9% 15.4% 19.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 4.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 2.6% 7.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 16.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.8% 5.7% 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% 6.1% 10.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.2% 4.4% 3.5% 0.1% 5.3% 5.1% 11.7% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 19.3% 16.5% 13.6% 0.0% 19.9% 17.0% 24.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 8.2% 3.4% 1.8% 1.2% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 2.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4%
DTOPS 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% 12.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lidia at 10/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 8.2% 4.0% 4.9% 2.0% 3.8% 4.0% 18.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 10.4% 6.7% 5.5% 3.4% 8.1% 8.6% 24.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 9.8% 6.0% 5.3% 3.0% 6.9% 7.4% 22.6% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 22.6% 18.6% 15.5% 9.6% 22.5% 19.2% 42.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 11.6% 6.0% 4.9% 2.5% 3.9% 4.5% 12.7% Logistic Regression 1.1% 6.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 6.6% 11.9%
Bayesian 0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9%
DTOPS 4.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------