Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Sixteen intensity image current Sixteen RI diff image

 


Max at 10/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Sixteen at 10/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 8.1% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6% 3.5% 1.1% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Max at 10/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.7% 5.8% 1.8% 3.1% 3.4% 1.7% 4.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 18.1% 10.3% 7.2% 4.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 15.0% 8.1% 6.1% 4.2% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 14.5% 33.1% 23.7% 18.4% 12.7% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 2.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 2.8% 12.3% 4.2% 2.3% 0.8% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.7% 8.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Max at 10/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.9% 10.8% 3.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 5.2% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 32.1% 20.4% 13.8% 6.8% 19.9% 14.2% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 26.7% 16.1% 10.7% 5.3% 15.0% 11.9% N/A SHIPS-RII 21.7% 45.7% 36.8% 26.6% 14.0% 35.6% 25.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 5.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 2.6% 0.4% Logistic Regression 10.9% 35.6% 17.6% 12.8% 5.6% 16.6% 9.3% N/A
Bayesian 2.9% 14.9% 6.9% 2.0% 0.8% 7.5% 8.3% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Max at 10/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 13.3% 3.7% 3.8% 1.2% 2.2% 1.3% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 16.4% 10.0% 7.5% 0.8% 10.4% 8.1% 6.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 14.3% 7.5% 5.8% 0.7% 7.6% 6.1% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 13.2% 22.7% 20.1% 17.9% 0.0% 22.4% 17.5% 13.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 6.6% 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.4% Logistic Regression 2.4% 13.5% 5.6% 3.3% 1.2% 7.4% 5.7% 4.2%
Bayesian 0.6% 12.9% 4.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 2.6%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 10/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 27.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.1% 14.7% 5.3% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 15.2% 8.4% 6.0% 3.6% 10.3% 10.4% 13.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 18.3% 8.5% 6.5% 4.4% 11.3% 9.1% 11.5% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 22.1% 18.0% 15.0% 10.1% 20.8% 17.6% 23.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 13.8% 4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 7.3% 2.6% 2.4% Logistic Regression 1.3% 12.2% 4.0% 2.2% 0.6% 8.6% 11.1% 7.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 11.4% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 1.4% 2.4% 9.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 10/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 3.2% 15.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 9.1% 5.6% 4.2% 0.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.7% 4.7% 3.4% 0.1% 5.7% 6.0% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 17.8% 14.7% 11.8% 0.0% 18.1% 14.7% 13.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 7.8% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 3.4% 6.1% 6.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 4.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 2.5%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 10/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 12.8% 3.3% 4.8% 3.6% 10.5% 6.5% 10.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 8.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 7.4% 9.0% 2.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 9.6% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 8.1% 8.3% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 15.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 6.9% 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 5.2% 3.2% 5.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 4.0% 8.9% 6.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 3.0% 0.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 10/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 10.6% 3.1% 2.8% 1.6% 3.9% 12.0% 9.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 2.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 7.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 4.7% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 5.8% 1.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1.9% 6.0% 4.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 7.0% 7.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 10/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 17.0% 2.5% 5.5% 2.5% 3.2% 4.3% 15.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 8.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.7% 2.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 10.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 1.4% 2.3% 5.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 10.5% 1.7% 3.2% 1.7% 1.6% 2.6% 7.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.4% 5.0% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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