Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seventeen intensity image current Seventeen RI diff image

 


Norma at 10/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 28.9% 5.7% 3.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 7.2% 4.6% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.5% 5.6% 3.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 33.4% 8.8% 6.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.1% 12.3% 8.5% 4.2% 9.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 20.1% 20.4% 10.2% 8.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.2% 18.5% 10.9% 7.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 24.5% 24.6% 13.7% 6.6% 8.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 22.2% 14.7% 8.6% 7.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 38.1% 22.8% 22.1% 18.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 39.0% 37.0% 19.0% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.5% 22.4% 10.9% 15.2% 16.6% 5.1% 1.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 24.9% 40.7% 31.8% 22.0% 8.9% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.0% 37.7% 29.2% 23.2% 11.3% 8.6% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 43.2% 55.8% 42.0% 31.2% 22.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.2% 52.7% 39.4% 24.1% 19.3% 15.0% 1.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 23.9% 31.0% 17.5% 15.8% 3.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 7.7% 35.3% 35.9% 19.1% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 49.0% 83.0% 71.0% 42.0% 36.0% 32.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.4% 27.3% 16.8% 16.6% 17.3% 18.5% 5.9% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 49.0% 60.4% 53.6% 46.9% 24.8% 21.1% 6.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 41.0% 52.1% 44.4% 39.3% 22.9% 20.4% 6.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 55.7% 71.3% 65.2% 55.8% 41.3% 39.2% 17.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 35.2% 50.1% 36.4% 31.3% 24.6% 37.7% 13.9% 1.0% Logistic Regression 49.2% 55.2% 39.1% 38.1% 12.6% 17.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Bayesian 42.0% 54.8% 56.5% 46.8% 20.4% 6.4% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 53.0% 73.0% 56.0% 46.0% 32.0% 57.0% 22.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 28.7% 25.6% 19.5% 13.4% 20.1% 24.4% 6.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 59.2% 67.6% 63.3% 55.6% 31.9% 40.8% 17.6% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 51.5% 57.1% 52.3% 45.0% 28.9% 36.7% 14.7% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 65.1% 85.5% 85.3% 76.8% 49.6% 75.0% 44.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.3% 51.3% 42.2% 37.7% 29.0% 44.7% 20.0% 8.9% Logistic Regression 48.2% 62.5% 48.9% 45.7% 23.5% 31.9% 6.7% 1.3%
Bayesian 64.4% 54.9% 55.6% 44.3% 22.5% 15.5% 1.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 56.0% 77.0% 65.0% 62.0% 38.0% 65.0% 34.0% 17.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.2% 24.9% 17.3% 13.6% 7.8% 16.8% 10.0% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 27.5% 49.0% 37.1% 27.5% 14.1% 29.5% 24.1% 15.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.9% 43.0% 32.1% 24.0% 12.5% 26.2% 20.5% 12.1% SHIPS-RII 36.9% 68.2% 58.5% 43.7% 24.9% 60.8% 59.5% 44.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.1% 45.4% 32.6% 26.8% 13.4% 33.4% 36.0% 32.7% Logistic Regression 25.0% 47.3% 31.2% 27.2% 13.7% 24.4% 11.3% 2.1%
Bayesian 20.6% 31.6% 21.6% 11.5% 3.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4%
DTOPS 37.0% 66.0% 48.0% 40.0% 19.0% 50.0% 62.0% 64.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Norma at 10/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.2% 38.8% 17.3% 9.9% 4.5% 17.0% 6.0% 4.8% SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 37.3% 27.8% 16.2% 8.1% 16.5% 22.1% 20.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 37.6% 25.1% 14.5% 7.2% 16.6% 18.0% 16.3% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 59.4% 42.4% 29.6% 16.6% 39.7% 50.9% 51.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.1% 43.4% 27.6% 18.4% 9.2% 23.5% 36.0% 42.9% Logistic Regression 7.5% 26.9% 13.3% 8.8% 5.3% 9.0% 14.9% 4.1%
Bayesian 8.4% 25.6% 27.7% 10.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 5.0%
DTOPS 18.0% 48.0% 38.0% 27.0% 14.0% 30.0% 66.0% 81.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------