Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eighteen intensity image current Eighteen RI diff image

 


Otis at 10/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Otis at 10/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Otis at 10/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.9% 9.1% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 46.2% 6.5% 9.5% 11.6% 27.4% 0.7% 0.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 80.0% 13.7% 8.2% 9.4% 17.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 62.0% 10.6% 6.4% 7.2% 13.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 86.4% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 79.1% 18.4% 24.4% 28.1% 53.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 74.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Otis at 10/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.2% 13.5% 18.3% 20.3% 16.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 51.6% 29.4% 24.8% 22.8% 22.2% 8.5% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 46.4% 25.4% 23.1% 22.2% 20.7% 6.6% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 81.7% 45.6% 45.1% 40.7% 29.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 38.6% 6.7% 9.6% 14.1% 12.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 69.2% 33.4% 29.1% 27.8% 37.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 3.8% 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 46.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.2% 30.0% 21.6% 23.0% 17.4% 10.2% 5.5% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 23.8% 37.0% 22.1% 18.0% 18.4% 10.5% 6.1% 3.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.7% 28.9% 18.1% 15.0% 11.2% 9.8% 6.0% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 42.4% 57.1% 49.3% 43.7% 37.1% 26.8% 17.3% 9.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.1% 18.0% 13.3% 15.0% 11.7% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% Logistic Regression 20.3% 24.8% 13.3% 9.3% 9.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 8.7% 29.0% 3.7% 1.1% 8.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 9.0% 9.0% 12.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 11.5% 18.1% 7.1% 6.1% 4.0% 4.5% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 15.3% 10.3% 6.9% 5.0% 8.9% 6.9% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 14.3% 12.2% 6.9% 5.2% 7.7% 6.3% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 33.9% 26.7% 18.8% 13.4% 25.7% 20.1% 10.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 7.7% 10.0% 5.5% 4.5% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% Logistic Regression 2.5% 8.8% 3.6% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 25.3% 16.6% 16.6% 10.6% 12.5% 4.4% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 8.6% 6.2% 5.1% 0.1% 7.3% 6.3% 3.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 12.7% 8.7% 8.0% 2.7% 8.5% 5.8% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 20.4% 17.6% 15.1% 0.0% 21.4% 18.0% 10.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 16.6% 10.8% 10.8% 7.3% 10.2% 4.2% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 29.9% 13.9% 5.3% 6.8% 16.2% 11.4% 7.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.8% 5.4% 4.4% 0.1% 6.5% 5.9% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 13.3% 7.5% 4.6% 1.7% 8.8% 7.2% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 16.9% 15.1% 12.8% 0.0% 19.0% 16.5% 9.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 16.9% 7.9% 4.6% 4.9% 9.6% 9.7% 3.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.2% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 25.9% 16.9% 6.0% 3.7% 11.4% 6.3% 26.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% 5.9% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 12.0% 7.6% 4.0% 2.3% 6.9% 6.0% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 14.6% 12.0% 9.1% 5.6% 15.2% 14.9% 11.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 13.9% 8.9% 3.5% 2.3% 6.2% 4.1% 14.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 3.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 12.7% 3.4% 2.5% 0.8% 1.1% 7.5% 10.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 4.2% 4.5% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.8% 3.4% 2.4% 0.2% 3.4% 5.2% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 10.0% 9.3% 6.8% 0.0% 12.1% 12.6% 9.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 7.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 4.2% 5.6% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 2.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 18.2% 11.0% 7.0% 2.0% 4.8% 6.5% 17.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 14.1% 6.9% 5.0% 2.6% 6.5% 6.4% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 15.1% 7.8% 5.5% 2.4% 6.0% 6.4% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 18.4% 14.1% 11.0% 6.9% 16.5% 15.4% 12.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 12.1% 7.5% 5.0% 2.0% 2.9% 4.2% 9.8% Logistic Regression 3.7% 21.3% 6.3% 3.9% 0.7% 2.6% 3.0% 9.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Otis at 10/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.4% 24.5% 15.1% 8.2% 2.1% 9.8% 20.5% 22.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 21.0% 8.8% 6.1% 2.8% 7.5% 6.9% 7.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 21.8% 10.3% 6.6% 2.6% 8.1% 10.3% 10.9% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 17.0% 13.6% 10.8% 6.5% 15.3% 13.9% 9.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 15.7% 9.5% 6.1% 2.5% 5.9% 11.7% 12.1% Logistic Regression 9.6% 36.4% 12.1% 7.3% 1.7% 5.7% 4.9% 11.9%
Bayesian 0.7% 9.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6% 2.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eighteen at 10/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.2% 33.4% 28.5% 20.9% 5.3% 19.8% 26.4% 18.5% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 23.3% 9.8% 6.5% 0.6% 8.6% 9.9% 13.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 25.8% 14.4% 10.0% 1.7% 11.4% 14.0% 14.5% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 17.1% 13.3% 10.2% 0.0% 15.7% 15.2% 17.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 18.7% 15.2% 11.4% 3.1% 10.4% 14.7% 11.2% Logistic Regression 12.6% 43.9% 15.3% 9.0% 1.6% 8.0% 10.6% 22.5%
Bayesian 1.0% 9.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 3.9% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------