Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Pilar at 11/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 26.4% 22.6% 14.7% 5.3% 5.3% 0.7% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 18.9% 4.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 20.7% 9.2% 5.8% 1.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.3% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.7% 14.2% 11.8% 8.8% 3.6% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.6% 28.1% 11.9% 7.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 2.3% 9.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.4% 36.9% 41.8% 29.8% 11.4% 14.1% 5.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 23.3% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8% 0.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.6% 44.1% 32.9% 21.5% 3.3% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 23.3% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.7% 21.9% 22.9% 17.4% 7.2% 7.5% 3.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 40.6% 66.8% 45.2% 36.3% 2.1% 6.4% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian 16.0% 49.8% 27.1% 20.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 37.5% 23.9% 20.6% 12.8% 24.1% 14.7% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 22.2% 44.0% 29.6% 23.7% 5.8% 11.8% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.2% 42.4% 28.1% 22.9% 7.5% 14.8% 3.8% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 25.2% 18.2% 14.6% 10.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.1% 23.7% 14.4% 12.3% 7.4% 13.0% 8.3% 0.4% Logistic Regression 49.9% 80.3% 59.8% 50.2% 6.6% 14.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian 4.1% 26.6% 10.8% 6.4% 0.7% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 18.6% 8.2% 2.3% 2.0% 8.4% 6.3% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 16.1% 8.8% 6.1% 3.4% 6.4% 4.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 16.7% 8.6% 5.1% 3.0% 6.8% 4.7% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 19.3% 16.0% 13.2% 8.9% 16.8% 12.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 19.3% 9.1% 3.6% 2.5% 5.7% 4.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 26.9% 9.9% 5.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 8.1% 9.5% 4.4% 1.1% 1.7% 6.8% 5.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 12.1% 6.5% 5.0% 3.3% 6.0% 4.5% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 11.1% 7.2% 4.8% 2.7% 4.9% 5.0% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 18.1% 15.3% 12.7% 8.7% 16.7% 13.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 13.0% 9.7% 4.7% 2.0% 4.8% 4.9% 2.5% Logistic Regression 1.8% 17.8% 4.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 18.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 7.4% 8.8% 4.3% 1.3% 4.6% 3.0% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 11.5% 5.9% 4.4% 3.0% 6.3% 5.3% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 10.4% 6.6% 4.3% 2.6% 5.8% 4.7% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 19.7% 15.2% 12.1% 8.5% 17.7% 14.8% 7.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 15.2% 9.9% 4.1% 2.1% 12.3% 4.0% 5.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 14.2% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 23.0% 11.0% 4.0% 3.0% 20.0% 5.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 4.7% 4.7% 2.4% 1.7% 5.4% 8.0% 5.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 19.4% 7.6% 5.5% 3.8% 7.2% 5.5% 3.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 15.7% 6.8% 4.7% 3.3% 6.7% 6.1% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 19.5% 15.0% 11.9% 8.4% 18.0% 15.3% 7.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 11.8% 7.3% 3.7% 2.8% 8.7% 6.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 5.9% 37.5% 7.6% 4.6% 3.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% Bayesian 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 14.3% 16.3% 7.7% 3.5% 10.1% 3.3% 5.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 4.7% 2.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 6.7% 4.6% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% 4.3% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 5.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 8.1% 8.6% 5.3% 2.7% 5.0% 2.1% 2.5% Logistic Regression 1.6% 12.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 3.7% 8.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.6% 5.8% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.8% 4.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 3.9% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 21.9% 19.8% 11.7% 5.4% 7.2% 5.1% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 11.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 13.8% 7.1% 4.3% 2.2% 2.4% 1.4% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 11.9% 10.9% 7.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 7.0% 31.9% 8.8% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% 0.5% 2.9% Bayesian 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.4% 30.6% 27.3% 11.9% 5.3% 12.8% 3.6% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 21.4% 9.9% 7.3% 4.0% 8.0% 0.5% 4.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 23.6% 14.2% 8.5% 4.3% 9.2% 1.2% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 21.6% 17.0% 14.2% 9.8% 19.7% 0.0% 7.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.2% 20.3% 17.6% 9.9% 5.6% 7.9% 2.8% 1.8% Logistic Regression 8.3% 38.8% 12.5% 7.8% 2.0% 4.2% 1.3% 7.1% Bayesian 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 12.4% 7.3% 1.4% 0.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 15.9% 7.3% 5.3% 3.0% 6.5% 0.1% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 14.9% 7.2% 4.3% 2.3% 5.7% 0.6% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 18.8% 14.5% 11.6% 8.0% 16.7% 0.0% 8.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 7.7% 4.6% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% Logistic Regression 3.5% 28.0% 7.2% 4.2% 1.0% 2.6% 0.4% 4.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 8.7% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 14.5% 6.9% 5.0% 2.9% 6.3% 0.1% 0.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 13.0% 6.3% 4.0% 2.2% 4.8% 0.1% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 18.5% 14.3% 11.3% 7.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 5.3% 2.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 24.7% 6.3% 3.8% 1.1% 2.8% 0.2% 2.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 24.0% 16.6% 3.8% 1.2% 4.4% 2.0% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 8.8% 5.0% 3.6% 2.4% 5.2% 4.9% 2.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 12.6% 7.9% 3.6% 2.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 18.2% 13.3% 9.8% 6.9% 14.7% 14.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 13.0% 8.8% 2.4% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 8.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 6.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 14.0% 7.0% 3.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.9% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 7.7% 4.8% 3.5% 2.3% 4.8% 4.4% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 9.2% 5.3% 3.4% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 16.6% 13.0% 9.9% 6.7% 13.8% 12.8% 7.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 3.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 3.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 15.9% 14.8% 3.5% 1.7% 7.9% 0.8% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.2% 5.5% 4.2% 2.8% 5.8% 4.7% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 10.1% 7.8% 4.0% 2.5% 6.3% 3.7% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 19.3% 15.1% 12.0% 8.2% 16.7% 13.1% 6.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 8.9% 7.9% 3.2% 1.8% 3.9% 0.9% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 5.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 5.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 6.4% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 2.6% 0.7% 8.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.5% 5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 5.8% 4.6% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.4% 4.5% 3.5% 0.1% 5.0% 3.6% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 17.8% 15.1% 12.4% 0.0% 17.2% 13.2% 7.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 3.7% 1.8% 2.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 3.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 11/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 4.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 4.1% 1.5% 8.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 6.6% 5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 5.9% 5.0% 3.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 6.0% 4.2% 3.4% 0.3% 5.4% 4.1% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.6% 15.1% 12.3% 0.0% 17.3% 13.8% 7.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.7% 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.7% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 4.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 6.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.1% 4.0% 2.9% 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.3% 11.8% 8.7% 5.2% 13.5% 12.6% 7.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 2.9% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 7.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.6% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 0.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 13.2% 11.3% 8.4% 0.0% 13.3% 12.4% 6.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 5.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 6.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 3.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.1% 5.0% 4.8% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.0% 3.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3.9% 4.3% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 16.9% 13.7% 10.4% 6.4% 14.9% 13.8% 7.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 5.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 2.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 8.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.5% 4.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.3% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.5% 4.5% 3.2% 1.9% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 10.3% 18.6% 15.3% 12.2% 7.5% 16.8% 14.2% 8.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 10.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.8% 2.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.7% 2.2% Bayesian 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 22.6% 3.9% 3.8% 1.7% 2.4% 1.2% 10.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 12.3% 7.8% 5.8% 3.3% 7.5% 7.3% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 14.8% 6.7% 5.3% 2.8% 6.1% 5.8% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 21.6% 17.5% 14.5% 9.1% 19.8% 16.2% 9.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 22.8% 7.4% 4.9% 2.8% 8.2% 3.6% 6.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 11.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.6% 1.9% 5.4% 6.9% Bayesian 0.6% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS 8.0% 23.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 26.3% 5.7% 2.5% 2.7% 4.7% 2.5% 5.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 11.8% 7.1% 5.4% 3.1% 7.6% 6.5% 4.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 15.4% 6.7% 4.6% 2.9% 6.8% 5.5% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 20.5% 16.4% 13.2% 8.2% 19.4% 16.1% 9.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 23.1% 7.3% 3.7% 2.8% 8.3% 4.2% 3.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 13.8% 4.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.7% Bayesian 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS 4.0% 20.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 16.6% 4.3% 3.5% 1.6% 4.1% 1.6% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 10.2% 6.3% 4.8% 2.8% 7.5% 7.4% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 11.8% 5.7% 4.4% 2.5% 6.6% 5.9% 5.6% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 18.9% 15.4% 12.3% 7.5% 18.7% 15.5% 11.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 17.8% 6.1% 3.2% 1.8% 9.5% 3.3% 4.2% Logistic Regression 1.4% 11.0% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 3.5% 6.7% 4.7% Bayesian 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS 2.0% 19.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Pilar at 10/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 12.8% 3.7% 2.7% 0.9% 2.9% 3.0% 6.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 11.2% 6.1% 4.6% 2.6% 7.0% 7.2% 4.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 11.6% 5.5% 4.1% 2.1% 5.9% 6.1% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 17.3% 14.1% 11.0% 6.5% 16.8% 14.3% 9.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 13.9% 5.8% 3.3% 1.9% 6.9% 5.5% 4.1% Logistic Regression 2.7% 15.2% 4.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.1% Bayesian 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 10/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 10.1% 1.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.1% 4.8% 3.4% 0.2% 5.2% 5.6% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 8.5% 4.1% 3.2% 0.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 15.1% 12.2% 9.1% 0.0% 14.0% 12.9% 9.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 9.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.7% Logistic Regression 1.3% 8.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1.5% 3.8% 3.5% Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 10/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 7.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 8.0% 5.0% 3.7% 0.1% 5.6% 4.9% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 7.8% 4.5% 3.1% 0.2% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 15.6% 12.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.3% 13.8% 9.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 7.3% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 5.1% 6.7% 4.4% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 9.0% 12.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 10/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 12.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.3% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% 5.6% 5.0% 3.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.1% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 4.2% 4.1% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 17.7% 13.9% 10.8% 0.0% 15.6% 13.8% 9.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 6.4% 2.7% 1.6% 1.5% 4.0% 6.8% 8.8% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 12.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 10/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.9% 32.9% 18.8% 6.6% 3.3% 10.6% 8.5% 17.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 20.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.4% 10.1% 9.5% 8.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 23.4% 11.5% 6.6% 1.1% 10.2% 9.2% 10.6% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 21.4% 15.9% 12.4% 0.0% 17.5% 15.0% 9.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.4% 23.9% 12.9% 5.8% 3.6% 9.3% 10.7% 11.3% Logistic Regression 5.6% 32.8% 10.1% 7.1% 1.2% 10.5% 12.7% 15.2% Bayesian 0.3% 6.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8.0% 13.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 10/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 9.9% 4.9% 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 8.9% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 11.4% 5.5% 3.8% 0.1% 5.7% 5.9% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 11.0% 5.3% 3.1% 0.2% 4.8% 6.6% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 15.9% 12.5% 9.4% 0.0% 14.5% 12.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 7.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.1% 6.9% 6.8% Logistic Regression 1.9% 13.7% 3.7% 1.8% 0.2% 2.1% 4.4% 10.3% Bayesian 0.3% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------