Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Four intensity image current Four RI diff image

 


Four at 11/06/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 2.6% 6.2% 1.2% 1.7% 4.5% 0.8% 9.4% 0.2% 8.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 1.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.6% N/A 0.4% 4.4% 0.8% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.9%
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Four at 11/06/22 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 4.9% 6.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 5.1% 0.3% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 2.6% 2.1% 3.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% 3.2% 1.0% 3.4% 1.5% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 2.6% 3.2%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 7.6% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 3.0%
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Four at 11/06/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 9.5% 4.5% 1.6% 0.8% 2.1% 0.5% 8.1% 0.2% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 7.1% 2.3% 4.3% 3.5% 4.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.7% 5.4% 1.7% 5.5% 2.4% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 5.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 13.6% 4.6% 4.3% 2.7% 4.5%
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Four at 11/05/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 3.7% 0.1% 8.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.1%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 3.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 1.5%
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Four at 11/05/22 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.2% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
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Four at 11/05/22 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 7.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 14.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.6% 4.9% 3.0% 6.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 4.2% 2.1% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 4.9% 4.9% 8.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 4.7% 1.2% 4.9% 1.2% 3.8%
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Four at 11/04/22 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 3.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 2.8% 1.1% 7.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 2.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 2.0% 1.1% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.9%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 3.4% 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 1.8%
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