Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Cheneso intensity image current Cheneso RI diff image

 


Cheneso at 01/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 4.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Cheneso at 01/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 7.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cheneso at 01/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cheneso at 01/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 5.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 6.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cheneso at 01/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 10.0% 6.8% 6.4% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 6.8% 4.6% 4.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 6.9% 5.1% 4.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 13.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
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Cheneso at 01/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 2.1% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 46.5% 60.9% 60.9% 60.9% 51.6% 25.1% 4.4% 5.1% 1.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.3% 41.3% 40.8% 41.3% 34.8% 16.8% 3.0% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 62.7% 58.9% 58.9% 58.9% 42.8% 27.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 30.3% 63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 60.4% 22.5% 8.7% 10.0% 2.2% 0.3%
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Cheneso at 01/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 5.2% 7.9% 12.8% 12.1% 3.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 7.8% 18.5% 10.7% 10.0% 7.8% 7.5% 1.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.3% 13.5% 7.2% 5.7% 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.3% 23.5% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5% 11.1% 3.6% 3.4% 1.8% 1.6%
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Cheneso at 01/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 5.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8%
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Cheneso at 01/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 6.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.4% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 4.5% 0.5% 4.0% 1.5% 3.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 3.0% 0.3% 2.9% 1.0% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 3.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 5.1% 0.0% 4.6% 2.3% 6.2%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 9.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 0.9% 3.3% 0.7% 1.6%
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Cheneso at 01/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 3.6% 19.8% 13.9% 12.5% 9.5% 11.2% 1.1% 9.5% 1.9% 5.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 13.7% 9.4% 8.9% 6.5% 7.4% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.9% 15.0% 11.4% 8.5% 2.6% 14.4% 0.0% 8.3% 2.3% 7.1%
Logistic Regression 3.4% 24.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 8.0% 2.2% 10.8% 1.5% 2.9%
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Cheneso at 01/26/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 21.0% 15.0% 12.3% 11.7% 12.2% 1.2% 11.3% 2.3% 5.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 14.0% 10.0% 8.4% 7.9% 8.1% 0.8% 7.8% 1.5% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 15.6% 12.0% 6.6% 5.4% 15.7% 0.0% 10.3% 2.8% 8.4%
Logistic Regression 3.8% 26.3% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 8.7% 2.5% 12.2% 1.7% 3.4%
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Cheneso at 01/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 37.3% 65.9% 64.8% 62.8% 60.0% 45.6% 9.2% 42.4% 8.3% 11.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.1% 44.1% 43.2% 42.5% 40.3% 30.4% 6.2% 28.7% 5.5% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.7% 59.7% 57.5% 53.4% 47.9% 53.5% 0.0% 33.1% 5.9% 11.2%
Logistic Regression 31.0% 72.1% 72.1% 72.1% 72.1% 37.7% 18.4% 51.8% 10.7% 11.8%
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Cheneso at 01/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 3.0% 0.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 37.6% 69.2% 69.2% 69.2% 56.6% 50.7% 12.7% 48.8% 11.0% 19.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.5% 47.1% 46.3% 47.4% 38.2% 33.8% 8.6% 33.1% 7.3% 14.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.4% 63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 37.8% 56.3% 0.0% 36.2% 7.9% 20.5%
Logistic Regression 32.8% 75.4% 75.4% 75.4% 75.4% 45.1% 25.4% 61.4% 14.1% 18.4%
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Cheneso at 01/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.9% 1.1% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 2.4% 0.0% 3.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 3.1% 0.0% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 45.8% 69.4% 69.4% 69.4% 58.9% 39.1% 8.4% 27.9% 5.6% 12.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.0% 46.5% 46.4% 46.6% 39.6% 26.0% 5.7% 19.6% 3.7% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 56.2% 65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 44.8% 43.4% 0.0% 16.3% 2.8% 12.2%
Logistic Regression 35.3% 73.1% 73.1% 73.1% 73.1% 34.7% 16.9% 39.6% 8.3% 13.2%
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Cheneso at 01/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 2.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.5% 3.8% 0.0% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 38.2% 57.9% 56.6% 56.6% 46.1% 33.1% 7.7% 15.9% 3.7% 7.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 26.1% 39.4% 37.8% 38.2% 31.1% 22.0% 5.3% 11.8% 2.4% 5.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.7% 51.5% 50.7% 50.7% 30.6% 33.7% 0.0% 9.4% 1.3% 6.5%
Logistic Regression 30.7% 64.3% 62.5% 62.5% 61.6% 32.4% 15.4% 22.4% 6.1% 7.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.9% 39.7% 29.3% 34.8% 26.0% 22.9% 16.6% 13.5% 3.7% 7.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.0% 46.3% 26.1% 33.9% 27.1% 44.6% 30.1% 29.0% 7.7% 7.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 15.9% 12.8% 14.8% 7.6% 6.0% 7.0% 27.7% 13.4% 33.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Cheneso at 01/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 24.5% 15.9% 8.3% 5.9% 13.4% 16.0% 22.6% 11.0% 43.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Cheneso at 01/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 31.4% 10.5% 7.6% 3.4% 19.8% 10.3% 11.7% 13.1% 39.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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